Meridian Energy Limited

CHIA:MEZ Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$13.9b

Meridian Energy Valuation

Is MEZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MEZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MEZ (A$5.36) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$11.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MEZ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MEZ?

Key metric: As MEZ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MEZ. This is calculated by dividing MEZ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MEZ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio35.9x
EarningsNZ$429.00m
Market CapNZ$15.39b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MEZ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MEZ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.5x
LGI LGI
41.3x17.9%AU$275.3m
ORG Origin Energy
13.3x-4.4%AU$18.6b
APA APA Group
9.4x-25.4%AU$9.2b
AGL AGL Energy
10.2x-2.3%AU$7.3b
MEZ Meridian Energy
35.9x6.6%AU$15.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MEZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.9x) compared to the peer average (18.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MEZ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Renewable Energy Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MEZ 35.9xIndustry Avg. 14.5xNo. of Companies40PE01224364860+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MEZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.9x) compared to the Global Renewable Energy industry average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MEZ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MEZ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35.9x
Fair PE Ratio18.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MEZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MEZ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$5.36
AU$5.92
+10.5%
10.5%AU$6.61AU$4.98n/a5
Nov ’25AU$5.34
AU$5.92
+10.8%
10.3%AU$6.61AU$4.98n/a5
Oct ’25AU$5.40
AU$5.98
+10.8%
11.7%AU$6.91AU$5.04n/a5
Sep ’25AU$5.75
AU$6.04
+5.0%
11.9%AU$6.95AU$5.06n/a5
Aug ’25AU$5.92
AU$5.74
-3.0%
8.6%AU$6.23AU$4.97n/a5
Jul ’25AU$5.96
AU$5.81
-2.5%
8.8%AU$6.41AU$5.03n/a5
Jun ’25AU$6.20
AU$5.54
-10.6%
5.9%AU$6.02AU$5.08n/a5
May ’25AU$5.44
AU$5.33
-2.1%
10.0%AU$5.93AU$4.37n/a5
Apr ’25AU$5.45
AU$5.02
-7.8%
11.5%AU$6.04AU$4.46n/a5
Mar ’25AU$5.54
AU$5.04
-9.0%
11.4%AU$6.08AU$4.49n/a5
Feb ’25AU$5.18
AU$4.98
-3.8%
13.1%AU$6.16AU$4.44n/a5
Jan ’25AU$5.19
AU$4.88
-5.9%
13.4%AU$6.09AU$4.38n/a5
Dec ’24AU$4.86
AU$4.88
+0.4%
13.4%AU$6.09AU$4.38n/a5
Nov ’24AU$4.46
AU$4.96
+11.2%
13.0%AU$6.15AU$4.38AU$5.345
Oct ’24AU$4.77
AU$5.11
+7.1%
11.7%AU$6.17AU$4.42AU$5.405
Sep ’24AU$4.82
AU$5.04
+4.7%
10.4%AU$5.99AU$4.42AU$5.755
Aug ’24AU$5.14
AU$5.04
-2.0%
12.5%AU$6.16AU$4.25AU$5.925
Jul ’24AU$5.16
AU$4.95
-4.1%
11.6%AU$5.91AU$4.18AU$5.965
Jun ’24AU$5.06
AU$5.13
+1.4%
12.5%AU$6.25AU$4.32AU$6.205
May ’24AU$5.05
AU$5.06
+0.2%
12.7%AU$6.18AU$4.28AU$5.445
Apr ’24AU$4.98
AU$5.10
+2.4%
13.9%AU$6.38AU$4.30AU$5.455
Mar ’24AU$4.88
AU$5.06
+3.7%
14.3%AU$6.31AU$4.26AU$5.545
Feb ’24AU$4.85
AU$5.02
+3.4%
15.6%AU$6.38AU$4.19AU$5.185
Jan ’24AU$5.01
AU$5.19
+3.6%
15.8%AU$6.66AU$4.37AU$5.195
Dec ’23AU$4.56
AU$5.00
+9.7%
16.7%AU$6.47AU$4.06AU$4.865
Nov ’23AU$4.34
AU$4.82
+11.1%
17.9%AU$6.31AU$3.96AU$4.465

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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