Stock Analysis

Estimating The Fair Value Of PuriflOH Limited (ASX:PO3)

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ASX:PO3
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In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of PuriflOH Limited (ASX:PO3) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for PuriflOH

What's the estimated valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF (A$, Millions) AU$454.7k AU$607.0k AU$752.7k AU$883.2k AU$995.2k AU$1.09m AU$1.17m AU$1.23m AU$1.29m AU$1.33m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 47.1% Est @ 33.51% Est @ 24% Est @ 17.34% Est @ 12.68% Est @ 9.41% Est @ 7.13% Est @ 5.53% Est @ 4.41% Est @ 3.63%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 5.2% AU$0.4 AU$0.5 AU$0.6 AU$0.7 AU$0.8 AU$0.8 AU$0.8 AU$0.8 AU$0.8 AU$0.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$7.0m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$1.3m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (5.2%– 1.8%) = AU$40m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$40m÷ ( 1 + 5.2%)10= AU$24m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$31m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$0.8, the company appears about fair value at a 18% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
ASX:PO3 Discounted Cash Flow March 18th 2022

The assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at PuriflOH as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For PuriflOH, we've put together three essential elements you should further examine:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for PuriflOH (3 are significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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