Can Qube Holdings Limited (ASX:QUB) Performance Keep Up Given Its Mixed Bag Of Fundamentals?

Most readers would already know that Qube Holdings' (ASX:QUB) stock increased by 2.5% over the past three months. However, we decided to study the company's mixed-bag of fundamentals to assess what this could mean for future share prices, as stock prices tend to be aligned with a company's long-term financial performance. Specifically, we decided to study Qube Holdings' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Qube Holdings

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Qube Holdings is:

6.0% = AU$184m ÷ AU$3.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.06 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Qube Holdings' Earnings Growth And 6.0% ROE

When you first look at it, Qube Holdings' ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, the fact that the its ROE is quite higher to the industry average of 4.8% doesn't go unnoticed by us. But then again, seeing that Qube Holdings' net income shrunk at a rate of 6.2% in the past five years, makes us think again. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. Hence, this goes some way in explaining the shrinking earnings.

That being said, we compared Qube Holdings' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 4.1% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Qube Holdings is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Qube Holdings Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Qube Holdings has a high three-year median payout ratio of 81% (that is, it is retaining 19% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run.

In addition, Qube Holdings has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 65% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Qube Holdings' future ROE will rise to 8.3% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Qube Holdings. Primarily, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which explains the lack of growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.