Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 14
Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$52k worth of stock On the 10th of March, Simon Lange bought around 80k shares on-market at roughly AU$0.65 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought AU$447k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
First half 2026 earnings released: AU$0.66 loss per share (vs AU$0.18 profit in 1H 2025) First half 2026 results: AU$0.66 loss per share (down from AU$0.18 profit in 1H 2025). Revenue: AU$367.2m (up 8.3% from 1H 2025). Net loss: AU$105.8m (down 467% from profit in 1H 2025). Revenue is expected to decline by 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Global Airlines industry are expected to grow by 7.2%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 42% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. New Risk • Feb 21
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.3x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.3x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (AU$121.6m market cap, or US$86.1m). New Risk • Feb 18
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: AU$140.9m (US$99.8m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 22% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (81% net debt to equity). Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Market cap is less than US$100m (AU$140.9m market cap, or US$99.8m). Announcement • Feb 05
Alliance Aviation Services Limited to Report First Half, 2026 Results on Feb 19, 2026 Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced that they will report first half, 2026 results on Feb 19, 2026 New Risk • Nov 21
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Australian stocks, typically moving 14% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 22% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (81% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (14% average weekly change). Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 13
Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$67k worth of stock On the 10th of November, Bernard Campbell bought around 50k shares on-market at roughly AU$1.34 per share. This transaction amounted to 87% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought AU$819k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 42%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from AU$781.0m to AU$802.0m. EPS estimate fell from AU$0.358 to AU$0.206 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 42% next year vs 6.9% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Australia . Consensus price target down from AU$3.33 to AU$1.50. Share price fell 48% to AU$1.32 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 10
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 20% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 20% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk High level of debt (81% net debt to equity). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 43% After last week's 43% share price decline to AU$1.45, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Airlines industry globally. Total loss to shareholders of 52% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at AU$2.88 per share. Board Change • Nov 01
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 5 new directors. No experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. MD & Executive Director Scott McMillan is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2011. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 16
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to AU$2.47, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Airlines industry globally. Total loss to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at AU$2.64 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 13
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 25% to AU$1.99. The fair value is estimated to be AU$2.54, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 22% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 3.4% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Oct 04
Price target decreased by 12% to AU$3.33 Down from AU$3.76, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 59% above last closing price of AU$2.09. Stock is down 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.36 for next year compared to AU$0.36 last year. Price Target Changed • Sep 17
Price target decreased by 12% to AU$3.33 Down from AU$3.76, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 48% above last closing price of AU$2.25. Stock is down 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.36 for next year compared to AU$0.36 last year. Board Change • Sep 01
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 4 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 4 new directors. No experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. MD & Executive Director Scott McMillan is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2011. The company’s lack of experienced directors is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 26
Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$50k worth of stock On the 22nd of August, Bernard Campbell bought around 19k shares on-market at roughly AU$2.60 per share. This transaction amounted to 51% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought AU$791k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Announcement • Aug 22
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Declares Fully Franked Dividend for the Year 2025 Alliance Aviation Services Limited declared fully franked dividend of $0.03 per share for the year 2025. Reported Earnings • Aug 21
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: AU$0.36 (down from AU$0.38 in FY 2024). Revenue: AU$773.5m (up 20% from FY 2024). Net income: AU$57.3m (down 5.2% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 7.4% (down from 9.4% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.2%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 7.5% growth forecast for the Global Airlines industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jul 21
Alliance Aviation Services Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Aug 20, 2025 Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Aug 20, 2025 Announcement • Jul 07
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 09, 2025 Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 09, 2025. Location: at murrayfield room, ballymore stadium, 91 clyde road, herston, queensland, Australia Major Estimate Revision • Jul 07
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast increased from AU$683.6m to AU$777.0m. EPS estimate unchanged at AU$0.364. Net income forecast to shrink 7.3% next year vs 9.3% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Australia . Consensus price target down from AU$3.90 to AU$3.80. Share price rose 3.0% to AU$2.71 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 27
Avian Inventory Management Llc agreed to acquire Embraer E190-E1 inventory of Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) from Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) for $32.5 million. Avian Inventory Management Llc agreed to acquire Embraer E190-E1 inventory of Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) from Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) for $32.5 million on June 27, 2025. A cash consideration of $32.5 million will be paid by Avian Inventory Management Llc. As part of consideration, $32.5 million is paid towards assets of Embraer E190-E1 inventory of Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to AU$2.59, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Airlines industry globally. Total loss to shareholders of 29% over the past three years. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 15
MD & Executive Director recently bought AU$182k worth of stock On the 13th of February, Scott McMillan bought around 70k shares on-market at roughly AU$2.59 per share. This transaction amounted to 1.8% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought AU$271k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Announcement • Feb 15
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Announces the Appointment of Bernard Campbell as Non-Executive Director Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced the appointment of Bernard Campbell as Non-Executive Director. Date of appointment 12-February 2025. Bernie Campbell brings deep experience in equipment finance and leasing (including aircraft). He is familiar with the company having been heavily involved in the initial financing of the Alliance fleet prior to Alliance Aviation Services Limited listing on the stock exchange. Currently, Mr. Campbell serves as Chairman of Angle Auto Finance Pty Ltd., Garrison Lending Operations Pty Ltd. a specialist equipment financier) and non-executive Director of boutique retirement village operator Oaktree Holdings Pty Ltd. Mr. Campbell also has significant experience with ASX-listed entities. He holds a Master of Applied Finance from Macquarie University and has completed the INSEAD Advanced Management Program. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.18 (vs AU$0.16 in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: AU$0.18 (up from AU$0.16 in 1H 2024). Revenue: AU$339.0m (up 11% from 1H 2024). Net income: AU$28.9m (up 9.9% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 8.5% (in line with 1H 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 8.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Global Airlines industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 83% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jan 29
Alliance Aviation Services Limited to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Feb 12, 2025 Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Feb 12, 2025 Price Target Changed • Oct 10
Price target decreased by 10% to AU$4.14 Down from AU$4.61, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 40% above last closing price of AU$2.96. Stock is down 7.5% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.41 for next year compared to AU$0.38 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 30
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to AU$3.10, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Airlines industry globally. Total loss to shareholders of 28% over the past three years. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 04
MD & Executive Director recently bought AU$53k worth of stock On the 30th of August, Scott McMillan bought around 19k shares on-market at roughly AU$2.87 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought AU$369k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: AU$0.38 (up from AU$0.23 in FY 2023). Revenue: AU$647.3m (up 25% from FY 2023). Net income: AU$60.5m (up 66% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 9.3% (up from 7.0% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.1% growth forecast for the Global Airlines industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 66% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jul 10
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Announces the Appointment of James Jackson and Mark Stanton as Non-Executive Directors Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced the appointment of Mr. James Jackson and Mr. Mark Stanton as non-executive directors to its Board. James Jackson is a highly experienced company director and former investment banking executive with extensive experience in both capital markets agribusiness, and general business. James has served on several ASX listed and private company boards, holding roles as Chairman, Deputy Chairman and non-executive director over the past 20 years. James earned a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Queensland, completed the Program for Management Development at Harvard Business School, and is a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Mark Stanton is a Chartered Accountant with 30 years of executive management experience having been CEO of one of Australia's and most profitable private companies and CFO/Company Secretary of an ASX 200 publicly listed company. Mark recently retired from a maximum eight-year tenure on the Board of the Queensland Rugby Union having been instrumental in a remarkable turnaround in the financial wellbeing of the organisation as well as the director in charge of the funding and construction of the new National Rugby Training Centre at Ballymore. Announcement • Jun 15
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Sep 24, 2024 Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Sep 24, 2024. Location: murrayfield room, ballymore stadium, 91 clyde road, queensland, australia, herston Australia Announcement • May 29
Alliance Aviation Services Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Aug 14, 2024 Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results After-Market on Aug 14, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 14
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to AU$2.80, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Airlines industry globally. Total loss to shareholders of 34% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at AU$1.89 per share. Reported Earnings • Feb 08
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.16 (vs AU$0.041 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: AU$0.16 (up from AU$0.041 in 1H 2023). Revenue: AU$304.4m (up 27% from 1H 2023). Net income: AU$26.3m (up 301% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 8.6% (up from 2.7% in 1H 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.4% growth forecast for the Global Airlines industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Board Change • Jan 19
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. No experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. Independent Non-Executive Director David Crombie was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2011. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Oct 21
Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) cancelled the acquisition of remaining 80% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ). Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) entered into a scheme implementation deed to acquire remaining 80% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) for approximately AUD 610 million on May 4, 2022. Qantas will issue worth AUD 4.75 of share to acquire each remaining share of Alliance. Upon completion, Alliance will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Qantas. The scheme requires Alliance to pay AUD 7.6 million breakup fee. The Alliance directors unanimously recommend the transaction. The acquisition is subject to approval of Alliance shareholders, independent expert concluding that scheme is in the best interest of Alliance shareholders, competition clearance, due diligence review, court approval and other customary conditions. As of August 18, 2022, The ACCC has outlined preliminary competition concerns regarding the acquisition, The ACCC’s final decision is scheduled for November 17, 2022. Ad os March 20, 2023, the ACCC review period has been extended till April 20, 2023. As of April 20, 2023, The ACCC had opposed the acquisition. The transaction is expected to be EPS accretive. Catapult Partners acted as financial advisor, Herbert Smith Freehills and King & Wood Mallesons acted as legal advisors of Alliance. Link Market Services Limited acted as registrar for Qantas and Alliance Aviation.Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) cancelled the acquisition of remaining 80% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) on October 19, 2023. Announcement • Aug 29
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2023 Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2023, at 11:00 E. Australia Standard Time. Location: Murrayfield Room, Ballymore Stadium, 91 Clyde Road Herston Queensland Australia Agenda: To consider the election of directors. New Risk • Aug 11
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 17% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Aug 11
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: Revenue: AU$518.5m (up 40% from FY 2022). Net income: AU$36.5m (up AU$41.7m from FY 2022). Profit margin: 7.0% (up from net loss in FY 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Global Airlines industry. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 99 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 14
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from AU$0.191 to AU$0.218. Revenue forecast steady at AU$518.5m. Net income forecast to grow 879% next year vs 38% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Australia. Consensus price target of AU$4.33 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 23% to AU$3.42 over the past week. Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. No experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. Independent Non-Executive Director David Crombie was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2011. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Aug 22
Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 11, 2022 Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 11, 2022, at 10:01 E. Australia Standard Time. Price Target Changed • Aug 13
Price target decreased to AU$4.30 Down from AU$4.75, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 26% above last closing price of AU$3.40. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.27 next year compared to a net loss per share of AU$0.032 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 11
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: AU$0.032 loss per share (down from AU$0.21 profit in FY 2021). Revenue: AU$371.3m (up 20% from FY 2021). Net loss: AU$5.21m (down 116% from profit in FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 46%, compared to a 48% growth forecast for the airlines industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Aug 09
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Provides Unaudited Financial Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2022 Alliance Aviation Services Limited provided unaudited financial guidance for the fiscal year 2022. For the period, the company expects that due to the Fokker 50 non-cash write down of $12.1 million has resulted in incurring an unaudited statutory loss of $7.1 million. Announcement • May 06
Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) entered into a scheme implementation deed to acquire remaining 80% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) for approximately AUD 610 million. Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) entered into a scheme implementation deed to acquire remaining 80% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) for approximately AUD 610 million on May 4, 2022. Qantas will issue worth AUD 4.75 of share to acquire each remaining share of Alliance. Upon completion, Alliance will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Qantas. The scheme requires Alliance to pay AUD 7.6 million breakup fee. The Alliance directors unanimously recommend the transaction. The acquisition is subject to approval of Alliance shareholders, independent expert concluding that scheme is in the best interest of Alliance shareholders, competition clearance, due diligence review, court approval and other customary conditions. The transaction is expected to be EPS accretive. Catapult Partners acted as financial advisor, Herbert Smith Freehills and King & Wood Mallesons acted as legal advisors of Alliance. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 1 experienced director. 4 highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (3 non-independent directors). Independent Non-Executive Director David Crombie was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2011. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from AU$420.1m to AU$393.5m. EPS estimate also fell from AU$0.25 per share to AU$0.20 per share. Net income forecast to grow 538% next year vs 47% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Australia. Consensus price target down from AU$5.02 to AU$4.76. Share price fell 4.3% to AU$3.80 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 10
First half 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First half 2022 results: AU$0.021 loss per share (down from AU$0.15 profit in 1H 2021). Revenue: AU$171.2m (up 11% from 1H 2021). Net loss: AU$3.41m (down 115% from profit in 1H 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 49%, compared to a 69% growth forecast for the industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 14
MD & Executive Director recently bought AU$200k worth of stock On the 13th of August, Scott McMillan bought around 48k shares on-market at roughly AU$4.17 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold AU$2.0m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.21 (vs AU$0.17 in FY 2020) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: AU$308.8m (up 3.4% from FY 2020). Net income: AU$33.7m (up 25% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 11% (up from 9.0% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 13% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 17
MD & Executive Director recently sold AU$2.2m worth of stock On the 15th of March, Scott McMillan sold around 531k shares on-market at roughly AU$4.17 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 24
New 90-day high: AU$4.39 The company is up 25% from its price of AU$3.51 on 26 November 2020. The Australian market is up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Airlines industry, which is up 9.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is AU$20.67 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 12
Revenue beats expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.03%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 22%, compared to a 31% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Australia. Reported Earnings • Feb 11
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.15 (vs AU$0.085 in 1H 2020) The company reported a strong first half result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2021 results: Revenue: AU$154.8m (up 2.3% from 1H 2020). Net income: AU$23.4m (up 120% from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 15% (up from 7.0% in 1H 2020). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 36% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 04
Alliance Signs E190 Capacity Deal with QANTAS Alliance announces it has executed a Wet Lease Agreement with Qantas Airways for the provision of E190 capacity. The Agreement initially provides for three E190 aircraft to commence operations in mid-2021 with options for Qantas to call on an additional eleven aircraft based on market conditions. The Agreement is for an initial period of three years and the aircraft will be based in Adelaide and Darwin servicing the Adelaide-Alice Springs, Darwin-Alice Springs and Darwin-Adelaide routes. Alliance's enviable operational footprint enables it to provide services from any major city to the regions. The transaction is material for Alliance in that it is expected that it will account for in excess of 5% of total revenue once the first three aircraft have been fully deployed. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 04
New 90-day high: AU$4.29 The company is up 26% from its price of AU$3.41 on 06 November 2020. The Australian market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Airlines industry, which is up 16% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is AU$10.13 per share. Announcement • Jan 19
Alliance Executes Contract Extension with Newmont Mining Services Pty Ltd Alliance announces it has executed a contract extension with Newmont Mining Services Pty Ltd. for a period of three years. This extends the current contract with Newmont until 2024. This contract is considered by Alliance to be material as it is forecast to represent between 5% and 7% of revenue in the next 12 months. Alliance currently operates to and from the Granites Mine Site in the Northern Territory, Australia, from bases in Perth, Darwin and Brisbane. Alliance has been providing services to Newmont continuously for the last nine years. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 18
New 90-day high: AU$4.03 The company is up 13% from its price of AU$3.58 on 18 September 2020. The Australian market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, its price trend is similar to the Airlines industry, which is also up 13% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is AU$9.95 per share. Price Target Changed • Dec 08
Price target raised to AU$4.19 Up from AU$3.87, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. The new target price is 5.7% above the current share price of AU$3.96. As of last close, the stock is up 58% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 04
Analysts increase EPS estimates to AU$0.24 The 2021 consensus revenue estimate increased from AU$323.3m to AU$339.0m. The earnings per share estimate also received an upgrade from AU$0.18 to AU$0.24 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 41% next year compared to 6.1% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Australia. The consensus price target increased from AU$3.87 to AU$4.10. Share price is up 11% to AU$3.90 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 03
New 90-day high: AU$3.78 The company is up 10.0% from its price of AU$3.44 on 04 September 2020. The Australian market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Airlines industry, which is up 14% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is AU$7.67 per share. Announcement • Nov 13
Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) signed a share sale and purchase agreement to acquire Toll Aviation Engineering Pty Ltd from Toll Holdings Limited. Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) signed a share sale and purchase agreement to acquire Toll Aviation Engineering Pty Ltd from Toll Holdings Limited on November 13, 2020. The purchase consideration is not a financially material transaction however is of great strategic value to Alliance. Upon completion, Toll Aviation Engineering will undergo a name change to Unity Aviation Maintenance Pty Limited (UAM). UAM will retain its CASA Part 145 and Part 147 approvals which include the approval for Embraer E-190 maintenance and training and will continue to provide third party maintenance and overhaul services and will be operated as a distinct subsidiary of Alliance. The vast majority of existing Toll Aviation Engineering staff will remain with UAM. The transaction will be neutral to Alliance’s earnings for FY21. Completion of transaction scheduled to occur on November 30, 2020. Announcement • Aug 06
Alliance Aviation Services Limited Omits to Pay Final Dividend for the Year Ended 30 June 2020 Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced that due to the Group's planned fleet expansion, the Directors have resolved not to declare a final dividend for the year ended 30 June 2020. Announcement • Aug 03
Alliance Aviation Services Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Aug 05, 2020 Alliance Aviation Services Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2020 results at 5:00 PM, AUS Central Standard Time on Aug 05, 2020 