Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Telstra Group Limited (ASX:TLS) After Its Yearly Report

Last week, you might have seen that Telstra Group Limited (ASX:TLS) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to AU$4.00 in the past week. Telstra Group missed revenue estimates by 3.2%, coming in atAU$23b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.17 beat expectations, coming in 2.1% ahead of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Telstra Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Telstra Group's eleven analysts is for revenues of AU$24.0b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 5.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 11% to AU$0.19. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$24.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.19 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of AU$4.60, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Telstra Group at AU$5.10 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$3.75. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Telstra Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Telstra Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.9% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 4.2% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 3.8% annually. Not only are Telstra Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$4.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Telstra Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Telstra Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Telstra Group you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.