Telstra Group Valuation

Is TLS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TLS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TLS (A$3.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$5.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TLS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TLS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TLS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.1x
PEG Ratio3.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TLS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TLS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average57.5x
TPG TPG Telecom
176.9x32.0%AU$8.6b
ORA Orange
11.1x11.0%€25.4b
SCMN Swisscom
14.9x-0.2%CHF25.5b
2412 Chunghwa Telecom
27.1x3.4%NT$981.3b
TLS Telstra Group
19.9x6.4%AU$40.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TLS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the peer average (57.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TLS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Telecom Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TLS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the Global Telecom industry average (15.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TLS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TLS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.9x
Fair PE Ratio26.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TLS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TLS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.50
AU$4.14
+18.4%
10.1%AU$4.65AU$3.00n/a16
Jun ’25AU$3.47
AU$4.14
+19.4%
10.1%AU$4.65AU$3.00n/a16
May ’25AU$3.64
AU$4.40
+21.0%
6.1%AU$4.90AU$3.73n/a16
Apr ’25AU$3.86
AU$4.40
+14.1%
6.1%AU$4.90AU$3.73n/a16
Mar ’25AU$3.81
AU$4.40
+15.6%
6.1%AU$4.90AU$3.73n/a16
Feb ’25AU$4.03
AU$4.52
+12.1%
6.3%AU$5.10AU$4.00n/a15
Jan ’25AU$3.96
AU$4.51
+13.9%
6.3%AU$5.10AU$4.00n/a15
Dec ’24AU$3.79
AU$4.47
+18.1%
7.1%AU$5.10AU$3.75n/a16
Nov ’24AU$3.81
AU$4.54
+19.3%
7.6%AU$5.10AU$3.75n/a14
Oct ’24AU$3.85
AU$4.60
+19.5%
7.3%AU$5.10AU$3.75n/a13
Sep ’24AU$4.02
AU$4.60
+14.5%
7.3%AU$5.10AU$3.75n/a13
Aug ’24AU$4.26
AU$4.68
+9.9%
6.9%AU$5.20AU$3.75n/a13
Jul ’24AU$4.30
AU$4.66
+8.4%
6.9%AU$5.20AU$3.75n/a13
Jun ’24AU$4.39
AU$4.67
+6.5%
7.6%AU$5.50AU$3.75AU$3.4714
May ’24AU$4.38
AU$4.70
+7.3%
6.3%AU$5.50AU$4.20AU$3.6413
Apr ’24AU$4.22
AU$4.67
+10.7%
6.1%AU$5.50AU$4.20AU$3.8613
Mar ’24AU$4.04
AU$4.60
+13.9%
8.7%AU$5.50AU$3.57AU$3.8114
Feb ’24AU$4.15
AU$4.54
+9.4%
8.7%AU$5.40AU$3.57AU$4.0314
Jan ’24AU$3.99
AU$4.45
+11.4%
9.1%AU$5.30AU$3.57AU$3.9614
Dec ’23AU$3.98
AU$4.43
+11.2%
8.8%AU$5.30AU$3.57AU$3.7914
Nov ’23AU$3.93
AU$4.42
+12.4%
8.7%AU$5.30AU$3.57AU$3.8114
Oct ’23AU$3.85
AU$4.42
+14.8%
8.7%AU$5.30AU$3.57AU$3.8514
Sep ’23AU$3.95
AU$4.40
+11.5%
9.1%AU$5.30AU$3.57AU$4.0214
Aug ’23AU$3.97
AU$4.39
+10.6%
9.5%AU$5.30AU$3.52AU$4.2612
Jul ’23AU$3.84
AU$4.38
+14.1%
9.9%AU$5.30AU$3.52AU$4.3011
Jun ’23AU$4.00
AU$4.40
+9.9%
10.1%AU$5.30AU$3.52AU$4.3911

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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