Things Look Grim For Limeade, Inc. (ASX:LME) After Today's Downgrade

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Limeade, Inc. (ASX:LME), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from twin analysts covering Limeade is for revenues of US$51m in 2021, implying a considerable 9.1% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 3,117% to US$0.035 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$59m and US$0.016 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Limeade

The consensus price target fell 8.0% to AU$1.87, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Limeade's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Limeade at AU$2.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$1.73. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Limeade is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 9.1% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Limeade's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Limeade. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of Limeade.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2023, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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