Revenues Not Telling The Story For Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) After Shares Rise 26%

Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 209% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in Australia's IT industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.7x, you may consider Kinatico as a stock to avoid entirely with its 4.5x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

View our latest analysis for Kinatico

How Kinatico Has Been Performing

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Kinatico has been doing relatively well. It seems the market expects this form will continue into the future, hence the elevated P/S ratio. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Kinatico will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Kinatico's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 12% last year. The latest three year period has also seen a 23% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 15% per year as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 28% each year growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this in consideration, we believe it doesn't make sense that Kinatico's P/S is outpacing its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Kinatico's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Despite analysts forecasting some poorer-than-industry revenue growth figures for Kinatico, this doesn't appear to be impacting the P/S in the slightest. When we see a weak revenue outlook, we suspect the share price faces a much greater risk of declining, bringing back down the P/S figures. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Kinatico is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.