Analysts Are Updating Their Super Retail Group Limited (ASX:SUL) Estimates After Its Half-Year Results

Super Retail Group Limited (ASX:SUL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.9% to AU$15.71 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. Super Retail Group reported AU$2.0b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.64 beat expectations, being 2.8% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Super Retail Group

Following last week's earnings report, Super Retail Group's 14 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be AU$3.88b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 9.2% to AU$1.05 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$3.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.05 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at AU$15.21. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Super Retail Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$18.00 and the most bearish at AU$10.50 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Super Retail Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 8.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Super Retail Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$15.21, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Super Retail Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Super Retail Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Super Retail Group .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.