Is There An Opportunity With Beacon Lighting Group Limited's (ASX:BLX) 23% Undervaluation?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 27, 2021

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Beacon Lighting Group Limited (ASX:BLX) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Beacon Lighting Group

Crunching the numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Levered FCF (A\$, Millions) AU\$36.5m AU\$35.7m AU\$39.2m AU\$48.0m AU\$51.5m AU\$54.4m AU\$56.8m AU\$58.9m AU\$60.8m AU\$62.5m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 7.25% Est @ 5.63% Est @ 4.5% Est @ 3.71% Est @ 3.15% Est @ 2.77% Present Value (A\$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4% AU\$34.0 AU\$31.0 AU\$31.6 AU\$36.1 AU\$36.1 AU\$35.5 AU\$34.6 AU\$33.4 AU\$32.1 AU\$30.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU\$335m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU\$62m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.4%– 1.9%) = AU\$1.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU\$1.2b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= AU\$569m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU\$904m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU\$3.1, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 23% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Beacon Lighting Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.255. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Beacon Lighting Group, we've compiled three further items you should assess:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Beacon Lighting Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does BLX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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