Stock Analysis

GPT Group's (ASX:GPT) investors will be pleased with their 4.1% return over the last five years

ASX:GPT
Source: Shutterstock

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in The GPT Group (ASX:GPT), since the last five years saw the share price fall 19%.

Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

Check out our latest analysis for GPT Group

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SWOT Analysis for GPT Group

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the REITs market.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Looking back five years, both GPT Group's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 19% per year. The share price decline of 4% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:GPT Earnings Per Share Growth July 1st 2023

Dive deeper into GPT Group's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of GPT Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of GPT Group, it has a TSR of 4.1% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

GPT Group shareholders are up 5.1% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 0.8% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for GPT Group (1 shouldn't be ignored) that you should be aware of.

But note: GPT Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About ASX:GPT

GPT Group

GPT is a vertically integrated diversified property group that owns and actively manages a portfolio of high quality Australian retail, office and logistics assets, with assets under management of $32.4 billion.

Average dividend payer with moderate growth potential.

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