Growthpoint Properties Australia Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for Growthpoint Properties Australia (ASX:GOZ) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 12% to AU$2.39. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Growthpoint Properties Australia delivered a statutory loss of AU$0.32 per share. Revenues of AU$333m did beat expectations by 7.4% though. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Growthpoint Properties Australia after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Growthpoint Properties Australia

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Growthpoint Properties Australia is for revenues of AU$323.5m in 2024. This implies a perceptible 2.8% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Growthpoint Properties Australia forecast to report a statutory profit of AU$0.27 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$312.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.28 in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Growthpoint Properties Australia after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

The analysts also cut Growthpoint Properties Australia's price target 5.6% to AU$3.32, implying that lower forecast earnings are expected to have a more negative impact than can be offset by the increase in revenue. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Growthpoint Properties Australia, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$3.80 and the most bearish at AU$2.80 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Growthpoint Properties Australia's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.8% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 6.3% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look comparatively optimistic for Growthpoint Properties Australia, since they're expecting it to shrink slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates it is expected to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Growthpoint Properties Australia's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Growthpoint Properties Australia. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Growthpoint Properties Australia going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Growthpoint Properties Australia you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.