Mesoblast Limited

ASX:MSB Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.7b

Mesoblast Valuation

Is MSB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MSB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MSB (A$1.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$24.88)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MSB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MSB?

Key metric: As MSB barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for MSB. This is calculated by dividing MSB's market cap by their current book value.
What is MSB's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio2.3x
BookUS$480.36m
Market CapUS$1.12b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does MSB's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for MSB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.6x
IMM Immutep
2.3x38.6%AU$443.6m
CUV Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals
3.2x26.2%AU$651.3m
DXB Dimerix
10.6xn/aAU$192.2m
IMU Imugene
2.5x53.4%AU$290.1m
MSB Mesoblast
2.3x61.5%AU$1.7b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: MSB is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.3x) compared to the peer average (4.6x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does MSB's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Biotechs Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BNO Bionomics
0.3x-36.0%US$9.52m
No more companies available in this PB range
MSB 2.3xIndustry Avg. 3.0xNo. of Companies5PB0246810+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: MSB is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.3x) compared to the Australian Biotechs industry average (3x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MSB's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MSB PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio2.3x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MSB's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MSB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.51
AU$1.46
-3.0%
22.0%AU$1.88AU$1.10n/a3
Nov ’25AU$1.31
AU$1.46
+11.5%
22.0%AU$1.88AU$1.10n/a3
Oct ’25AU$1.21
AU$1.46
+20.7%
22.0%AU$1.88AU$1.10n/a3
Sep ’25AU$1.03
AU$1.46
+41.7%
22.0%AU$1.88AU$1.10n/a3
Aug ’25AU$0.99
AU$1.25
+25.6%
12.0%AU$1.40AU$1.10n/a2
Jul ’25AU$1.00
AU$1.10
+10.0%
27.3%AU$1.40AU$0.80n/a2
Jun ’25AU$1.11
AU$1.10
-0.9%
27.3%AU$1.40AU$0.80n/a2
May ’25AU$1.10
AU$1.10
0%
27.3%AU$1.40AU$0.80n/a2
Apr ’25AU$0.56
AU$0.69
+24.3%
15.9%AU$0.80AU$0.58n/a2
Mar ’25AU$0.29
AU$0.64
+116.9%
9.4%AU$0.70AU$0.58n/a2
Feb ’25AU$0.26
AU$0.59
+126.9%
1.7%AU$0.60AU$0.58n/a2
Jan ’25AU$0.31
AU$1.18
+280.6%
1.7%AU$1.20AU$1.16n/a2
Dec ’24AU$0.41
AU$1.38
+240.7%
15.9%AU$1.60AU$1.16n/a2
Nov ’24AU$0.38
AU$1.38
+268.0%
15.9%AU$1.60AU$1.16AU$1.312
Oct ’24AU$0.39
AU$2.07
+429.9%
47.8%AU$3.44AU$1.16AU$1.213
Sep ’24AU$0.46
AU$2.08
+352.2%
46.9%AU$3.44AU$1.20AU$1.033
Aug ’24AU$1.09
AU$3.35
+207.0%
17.2%AU$4.00AU$2.60AU$0.993
Jul ’24AU$1.14
AU$3.35
+194.9%
17.2%AU$4.00AU$2.60AU$1.003
Jun ’24AU$1.04
AU$3.35
+223.3%
17.2%AU$4.00AU$2.60AU$1.113
May ’24AU$0.87
AU$3.35
+284.7%
17.2%AU$4.00AU$2.60AU$1.103
Apr ’24AU$0.94
AU$3.35
+254.1%
17.2%AU$4.00AU$2.60AU$0.563
Mar ’24AU$0.94
AU$3.30
+249.2%
21.2%AU$4.00AU$2.60AU$0.292
Feb ’24AU$1.04
AU$2.95
+183.7%
11.9%AU$3.30AU$2.60AU$0.262
Jan ’24AU$0.87
AU$2.90
+233.3%
13.8%AU$3.30AU$2.50AU$0.312
Dec ’23AU$1.11
AU$2.90
+162.4%
13.8%AU$3.30AU$2.50AU$0.412
Nov ’23AU$0.94
AU$2.90
+208.5%
13.8%AU$3.30AU$2.50AU$0.382

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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