Mesoblast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Mesoblast is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 61.5% and 45.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 94.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.5% in 3 years.

Key information

61.5%

Earnings growth rate

94.4%

EPS growth rate

Biotechs earnings growth	15.3%
Revenue growth rate	45.8%
Future return on equity	15.5%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	05 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:MSB - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2027	463	106	87	163	5
6/30/2026	239	-13	-48	37	6
6/30/2025	17	-82	-67	-60	5
6/30/2024	6	-88	-49	-48	N/A
3/31/2024	7	-82	-54	-54	N/A
12/31/2023	7	-73	-59	-59	N/A
9/30/2023	8	-81	-62	-62	N/A
6/30/2023	8	-82	-64	-63	N/A
3/31/2023	8	-81	-61	-61	N/A
12/31/2022	8	-84	-60	-60	N/A
9/30/2022	8	-86	-62	-62	N/A
6/30/2022	10	-91	-66	-66	N/A
3/31/2022	10	-92	-71	-71	N/A
12/31/2021	10	-97	-81	-80	N/A
9/30/2021	10	-97	-92	-91	N/A
6/30/2021	7	-99	-102	-101	N/A
3/31/2021	6	-109	-104	-101	N/A
12/31/2020	16	-98	-99	-97	N/A
9/30/2020	16	-97	-71	-69	N/A
6/30/2020	32	-78	-59	-56	N/A
3/31/2020	33	-66	-57	-56	N/A
12/31/2019	22	-76	-58	-57	N/A
9/30/2019	22	-76	-54	-54	N/A
6/30/2019	17	-90	-58	-58	N/A
3/31/2019	16	-90	-59	-59	N/A
12/31/2018	16	-86	-57	-57	N/A
9/30/2018	28	-48	-74	-74	N/A
6/30/2018	17	-35	-75	-75	N/A
3/31/2018	16	-42	N/A	-78	N/A
12/31/2017	16	-30	N/A	-84	N/A
9/30/2017	3	-64	N/A	-95	N/A
6/30/2017	2	-77	N/A	-95	N/A
3/31/2017	29	-1	N/A	-90	N/A
12/31/2016	32	-8	N/A	-86	N/A
9/30/2016	35	-11	N/A	-81	N/A
6/30/2016	43	-4	N/A	-88	N/A
3/31/2016	20	-83	N/A	-97	N/A
12/31/2015	20	-88	N/A	-98	N/A
9/30/2015	20	-94	N/A	-101	N/A
6/30/2015	20	-96	N/A	-101	N/A
3/31/2015	21	-85	N/A	-87	N/A
12/31/2014	24	-84	N/A	-78	N/A
9/30/2014	26	-75	N/A	-80	N/A
6/30/2014	23	-76	N/A	-75	N/A
3/31/2014	30	-68	N/A	-73	N/A
12/31/2013	35	-58	N/A	-69	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MSB is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: MSB is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: MSB is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MSB's revenue (45.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MSB's revenue (45.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MSB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.5%).

Mesoblast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 76%

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2027

Forecast to breakeven in 2026

No longer forecast to breakeven

No longer forecast to breakeven

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.11 loss, revenue downgraded

Recent updates

Mesoblast Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 15, 2024

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 76%

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2027

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Mesoblast Limited Announces the United States Food and Drug Administration Has Accepted Its Biologics License Application (Bla) Resubmission for Ryoncil®

Mesoblast Limited Announces Patient Enrollment Commences in Pivotal Phase 3 Trial of Rexlemestrocel-L for Chronic Low Back Pain

Forecast to breakeven in 2026

Mesoblast Limited Resources Biologics Licence Application (BLA) with United States Food & Drug Administration (FDA) for Approval of Ryoncil in the Treatment of Children with SR-aGVHD

Mesoblast to File Biologics License Application for Ryoncil FDA Approval Next Week

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$200k worth of stock

No longer forecast to breakeven

United States Food & Drug Administration Notifies Mesoblast Limited of Available Clinical Data from Phase 3 Trial Appear Sufficient to Support BLA Submission for Remestemcel-L in Children with Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease

New minor risk - Share price stability

Mesoblast Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 0.93 million.

New major risk - Shareholder dilution

Mesoblast Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 97.041224 million.

Mesoblast Limited Announces United States Food & Drug Administration Supports Accelerated Approval Pathway for Rexlemestrocel-L in End-Stage Heart Failure Patients with A Left Ventricular Assist Device

No longer forecast to breakeven

First half 2024 earnings released: US$0.038 loss per share (vs US$0.057 loss in 1H 2023)

United States Food & Drug Administration Grants Mesoblast Rare Pediatric Disease Designation for Revascor®? (Rexlemestrocel-L) in Children with Congenital Heart Disease

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.11 loss, revenue downgraded

Mesoblast Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2023

Price target decreased by 36% to AU$0.69

Jane Bell AM Appointed Chair of Mesoblast Audit and Risk Committee

Mesoblast Limited Provides an Update on the Path to Approval for Its Lead-Product Candidate Remestemcel-L in the Treatment of Pediatric and Adult Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 27%, EPS upgraded

New major risk - Financial position

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026

New major risk - Share price stability

Price target decreased by 8.0% to AU$1.54

Mesoblast Limited Receives Complete Response from U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Biologics License Application for Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease in Children

Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 11%

Does Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Mesoblast Limited Appoints Dr. Philip R. Krause, Member of the Board of Directors, to Formal Strategic Advisory Role

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 13%

Forecast to breakeven in 2025

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.025 loss per share (vs US$0.033 loss in 3Q 2022)

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 101%

No longer forecast to breakeven

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 34%

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.033 loss per share (vs US$0.04 loss in 2Q 2022)

Remestemcel-L Clinical and Potency Studies Presented At Premier Meeting of Transplantation Research and Therapy

Mesoblast Limited Announces FDA Grants Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy Designation for Rexlemestrocel-L in Chronic Low Back Pain

Price target increased by 18% to AU$1.65

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 12%

Mesoblast Limited Resubmits Biologic License Application to FDA for Remestemcel-L in Children With Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease (Sr-aGVHD)

First quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.024 loss per share (vs US$0.035 loss in 1Q 2022)

Mesoblast Limited Announces Top-Line Long-Term Survival Results for Remestemcel-L from its Pivotal Phase 3 Trial (GVHD-001) in Children with Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease

Mesoblast Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 23, 2022

Mesoblast Limited Submits New Information to FDA File in Response to Items in the CRL to the Remestemcel-L BLA for SR-aGVHD

Insider recently bought AU$111k worth of stock

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 57%

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Mesoblast Limited Announces Board Changes

Price target decreased to AU$1.40

Consensus forecasts updated

Mesoblast Limited Announces Single Intervention with Rexlemestrocel-L Improves Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction At 12 Months, Preceding Long-Term Reduction in Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

Forecast to breakeven in 2025

Mesoblast Limited Provides Litigation Update

Consensus forecasts updated

Does Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Forecast to breakeven in 2024

Mesoblast Limited Provides Update on Survival Outcomes in Covid-19 ARDS Patients Treated with Remestemcel-L

Mesoblast Limited Announces Class Action Proceeding in the Federal Court of Australia

Price target decreased to AU$1.63

Mesoblast Limited Announces Executive Changes

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12%