Mesoblast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Mesoblast is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 64.4% and 63.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 21.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -14.5% in 3 years.

Key information

64.4%

Earnings growth rate

21.9%

EPS growth rate

Biotechs earnings growth	16.2%
Revenue growth rate	63.4%
Future return on equity	-14.5%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	05 Apr 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:MSB - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2026	123	-9	18	19	4
6/30/2025	16	-81	-62	-67	5
6/30/2024	8	-68	-51	-55	4
12/31/2023	7	-73	-59	-59	N/A
9/30/2023	8	-81	-62	-62	N/A
6/30/2023	8	-82	-64	-63	N/A
3/31/2023	8	-81	-61	-61	N/A
12/31/2022	8	-84	-60	-60	N/A
9/30/2022	8	-86	-62	-62	N/A
6/30/2022	10	-91	-66	-66	N/A
3/31/2022	10	-92	-71	-71	N/A
12/31/2021	10	-97	-81	-80	N/A
9/30/2021	10	-97	-92	-91	N/A
6/30/2021	7	-99	-102	-101	N/A
3/31/2021	6	-109	-104	-101	N/A
12/31/2020	16	-98	-99	-97	N/A
9/30/2020	16	-97	-71	-69	N/A
6/30/2020	32	-78	-59	-56	N/A
3/31/2020	33	-66	-57	-56	N/A
12/31/2019	22	-76	-58	-57	N/A
9/30/2019	22	-76	-54	-54	N/A
6/30/2019	17	-90	-58	-58	N/A
3/31/2019	16	-90	-59	-59	N/A
12/31/2018	16	-86	-57	-57	N/A
9/30/2018	28	-48	-74	-74	N/A
6/30/2018	17	-35	-75	-75	N/A
3/31/2018	16	-42	-78	-78	N/A
12/31/2017	16	-30	-84	-84	N/A
9/30/2017	3	-64	N/A	-95	N/A
6/30/2017	2	-77	N/A	-95	N/A
3/31/2017	29	-1	N/A	-90	N/A
12/31/2016	32	-8	N/A	-86	N/A
9/30/2016	35	-11	N/A	-81	N/A
6/30/2016	43	-4	N/A	-88	N/A
3/31/2016	20	-83	N/A	-97	N/A
12/31/2015	20	-88	N/A	-98	N/A
9/30/2015	20	-94	N/A	-101	N/A
6/30/2015	20	-96	N/A	-101	N/A
3/31/2015	21	-85	N/A	-87	N/A
12/31/2014	24	-84	N/A	-78	N/A
9/30/2014	26	-75	N/A	-80	N/A
6/30/2014	23	-76	N/A	-75	N/A
3/31/2014	30	-68	N/A	-73	N/A
12/31/2013	35	-58	N/A	-69	N/A
9/30/2013	37	-56	N/A	-60	N/A
6/30/2013	32	-56	N/A	-50	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MSB is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.2%).

Earnings vs Market: MSB is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: MSB is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MSB's revenue (63.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (4.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MSB's revenue (63.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MSB is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Mesoblast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

No longer forecast to breakeven

No longer forecast to breakeven

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.11 loss, revenue downgraded

Price target decreased by 36% to AU$0.69

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 27%, EPS upgraded

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026

Recent updates

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$200k worth of stock

No longer forecast to breakeven

United States Food & Drug Administration Notifies Mesoblast Limited of Available Clinical Data from Phase 3 Trial Appear Sufficient to Support BLA Submission for Remestemcel-L in Children with Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease

New minor risk - Share price stability

Mesoblast Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 0.93 million.

New major risk - Shareholder dilution

Mesoblast Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 97.041224 million.

Mesoblast Limited Announces United States Food & Drug Administration Supports Accelerated Approval Pathway for Rexlemestrocel-L in End-Stage Heart Failure Patients with A Left Ventricular Assist Device

No longer forecast to breakeven

First half 2024 earnings released: US$0.038 loss per share (vs US$0.057 loss in 1H 2023)

United States Food & Drug Administration Grants Mesoblast Rare Pediatric Disease Designation for Revascor®? (Rexlemestrocel-L) in Children with Congenital Heart Disease

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.11 loss, revenue downgraded

Mesoblast Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2023

Price target decreased by 36% to AU$0.69

Jane Bell AM Appointed Chair of Mesoblast Audit and Risk Committee

Mesoblast Limited Provides an Update on the Path to Approval for Its Lead-Product Candidate Remestemcel-L in the Treatment of Pediatric and Adult Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 27%, EPS upgraded

New major risk - Financial position

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026

New major risk - Share price stability

Price target decreased by 8.0% to AU$1.54

Mesoblast Limited Receives Complete Response from U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Biologics License Application for Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease in Children

Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 11%

Does Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Mesoblast Limited Appoints Dr. Philip R. Krause, Member of the Board of Directors, to Formal Strategic Advisory Role

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 13%

Forecast to breakeven in 2025

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.025 loss per share (vs US$0.033 loss in 3Q 2022)

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 101%

No longer forecast to breakeven

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 34%

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.033 loss per share (vs US$0.04 loss in 2Q 2022)

Remestemcel-L Clinical and Potency Studies Presented At Premier Meeting of Transplantation Research and Therapy

Mesoblast Limited Announces FDA Grants Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy Designation for Rexlemestrocel-L in Chronic Low Back Pain

Price target increased by 18% to AU$1.65

Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 12%

Mesoblast Limited Resubmits Biologic License Application to FDA for Remestemcel-L in Children With Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease (Sr-aGVHD)

First quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.024 loss per share (vs US$0.035 loss in 1Q 2022)

Mesoblast Limited Announces Top-Line Long-Term Survival Results for Remestemcel-L from its Pivotal Phase 3 Trial (GVHD-001) in Children with Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease

Mesoblast Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 23, 2022

Mesoblast Limited Submits New Information to FDA File in Response to Items in the CRL to the Remestemcel-L BLA for SR-aGVHD

Insider recently bought AU$111k worth of stock

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 57%

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Mesoblast Limited Announces Board Changes

Price target decreased to AU$1.40

Consensus forecasts updated

Mesoblast Limited Announces Single Intervention with Rexlemestrocel-L Improves Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction At 12 Months, Preceding Long-Term Reduction in Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

Forecast to breakeven in 2025

Mesoblast Limited Provides Litigation Update

Consensus forecasts updated

Does Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Forecast to breakeven in 2024

Mesoblast Limited Provides Update on Survival Outcomes in Covid-19 ARDS Patients Treated with Remestemcel-L

Mesoblast Limited Announces Class Action Proceeding in the Federal Court of Australia

Price target decreased to AU$1.63

Mesoblast Limited Announces Executive Changes

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12%

Price target decreased to AU$1.63

Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 20%

Donal O'Dwyer Retires from the Board of Mesoblast Limited

Mesoblast Limited Announces Positive Results from an Interim Analysis of the First Patient Cohort in the Randomized, Controlled Study of Remestemcel-L by Direct Endoscopic Delivery to Areas of Inflammation in Patients with Medically Refractory Ulcerative Colitis or Crohn's Colitis

Mesoblast Limited Appoints Eric Rose as Chief Medical Officer

Forecast to breakeven in 2024

Forecast to breakeven in 2024

Price target decreased to AU$2.45