CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues of US$15b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$5.45, missing estimates by 3.2%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for CSL

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from CSL's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$15.8b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 6.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 18% to US$6.46. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$15.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.75 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$317, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on CSL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$352 and the most bearish at AU$229 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that CSL's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while CSL's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on CSL. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CSL going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for CSL that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.