Here's Why We're Watching Chimeric Therapeutics' (ASX:CHM) Cash Burn Situation

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

So, the natural question for Chimeric Therapeutics (ASX:CHM) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. For the purpose of this article, we'll define cash burn as the amount of cash the company is spending each year to fund its growth (also called its negative free cash flow). First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.

View our latest analysis for Chimeric Therapeutics

How Long Is Chimeric Therapeutics' Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at June 2021, Chimeric Therapeutics had cash of AU$22m and no debt. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through AU$14m. Therefore, from June 2021 it had roughly 19 months of cash runway. That's not too bad, but it's fair to say the end of the cash runway is in sight, unless cash burn reduces drastically. Importantly, if we extrapolate recent cash burn trends, the cash runway would be noticeably longer. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

How Is Chimeric Therapeutics' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Because Chimeric Therapeutics isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. Nonetheless, we can still examine its cash burn trajectory as part of our assessment of its cash burn situation. Its cash burn positively exploded in the last year, up 17,228%. Given that sharp increase in spending, the company's cash runway will shrink rapidly as it depletes its cash reserves. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Hard Would It Be For Chimeric Therapeutics To Raise More Cash For Growth?

Given its cash burn trajectory, Chimeric Therapeutics shareholders may wish to consider how easily it could raise more cash, despite its solid cash runway. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

Chimeric Therapeutics' cash burn of AU$14m is about 21% of its AU$67m market capitalisation. That's not insignificant, and if the company had to sell enough shares to fund another year's growth at the current share price, you'd likely witness fairly costly dilution.

So, Should We Worry About Chimeric Therapeutics' Cash Burn?

Even though its increasing cash burn makes us a little nervous, we are compelled to mention that we thought Chimeric Therapeutics' cash runway was relatively promising. Summing up, we think the Chimeric Therapeutics' cash burn is a risk, based on the factors we mentioned in this article. On another note, Chimeric Therapeutics has 5 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.