Here's Why We're Watching Applyflow's (ASX:AFW) Cash Burn Situation

By
Simply Wall St
Published
August 19, 2021
ASX:AFW
Source: Shutterstock

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. Nonetheless, only a fool would ignore the risk that a loss making company burns through its cash too quickly.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Applyflow (ASX:AFW) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.

Check out our latest analysis for Applyflow

How Long Is Applyflow's Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. When Applyflow last reported its balance sheet in December 2020, it had zero debt and cash worth AU$3.3m. Importantly, its cash burn was AU$3.1m over the trailing twelve months. So it had a cash runway of approximately 13 months from December 2020. That's not too bad, but it's fair to say the end of the cash runway is in sight, unless cash burn reduces drastically. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ASX:AFW Debt to Equity History August 19th 2021

How Is Applyflow's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Whilst it's great to see that Applyflow has already begun generating revenue from operations, last year it only produced AU$1.6m, so we don't think it is generating significant revenue, at this point. As a result, we think it's a bit early to focus on the revenue growth, so we'll limit ourselves to looking at how the cash burn is changing over time. In fact, it ramped its spending strongly over the last year, increasing cash burn by 122%. It's fair to say that sort of rate of increase cannot be maintained for very long, without putting pressure on the balance sheet. Of course, we've only taken a quick look at the stock's growth metrics, here. This graph of historic revenue growth shows how Applyflow is building its business over time.

How Easily Can Applyflow Raise Cash?

Given its cash burn trajectory, Applyflow shareholders may wish to consider how easily it could raise more cash, despite its solid cash runway. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Applyflow's cash burn of AU$3.1m is about 11% of its AU$29m market capitalisation. As a result, we'd venture that the company could raise more cash for growth without much trouble, albeit at the cost of some dilution.

So, Should We Worry About Applyflow's Cash Burn?

Even though its increasing cash burn makes us a little nervous, we are compelled to mention that we thought Applyflow's cash burn relative to its market cap was relatively promising. We don't think its cash burn is particularly problematic, but after considering the range of factors in this article, we do think shareholders should be monitoring how it changes over time. Taking a deeper dive, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Applyflow you should be aware of, and 2 of them shouldn't be ignored.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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