Lynas Rare Earths Limited

CHIA:LYC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$6.0b

Lynas Rare Earths Valuation

Is LYC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LYC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LYC (A$6.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$29.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LYC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LYC?

Key metric: As LYC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LYC. This is calculated by dividing LYC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LYC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio71.1x
EarningsAU$84.51m
Market CapAU$6.01b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LYC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LYC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.3x
MIN Mineral Resources
53.4x40.7%AU$6.7b
ILU Iluka Resources
7.9x2.7%AU$2.2b
PLS Pilbara Minerals
25.7x28.6%AU$6.6b
NIC Nickel Industries
22.1x48.0%AU$3.5b
LYC Lynas Rare Earths
71.1x43.6%AU$6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LYC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71.1x) compared to the peer average (27.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LYC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.7x-13.3%US$205.89m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.7xn/aUS$163.84m
GRR Grange Resources
2.4xn/aUS$158.27m
PTN Patronus Resources
1.8xn/aUS$49.87m
LYC 71.1xIndustry Avg. 12.9xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LYC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71.1x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LYC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LYC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio71.1x
Fair PE Ratio32.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LYC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LYC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$6.46
AU$7.55
+16.9%
17.7%AU$9.50AU$5.00n/a15
Dec ’25AU$6.90
AU$7.55
+9.4%
18.0%AU$9.50AU$5.00n/a15
Nov ’25AU$7.87
AU$7.72
-1.9%
21.9%AU$12.00AU$5.00n/a15
Oct ’25AU$7.87
AU$7.54
-4.2%
23.0%AU$12.00AU$5.00n/a15
Sep ’25AU$7.08
AU$7.46
+5.3%
22.1%AU$12.00AU$4.95n/a16
Aug ’25AU$6.28
AU$7.09
+12.9%
23.9%AU$12.00AU$4.75n/a16
Jul ’25AU$6.17
AU$7.24
+17.3%
22.6%AU$12.00AU$4.85n/a16
Jun ’25AU$6.63
AU$7.27
+9.7%
21.7%AU$12.00AU$5.00n/a16
May ’25AU$6.51
AU$7.21
+10.9%
22.6%AU$12.00AU$5.00n/a15
Apr ’25AU$5.70
AU$7.17
+25.7%
14.0%AU$10.00AU$5.00n/a14
Mar ’25AU$6.12
AU$7.64
+24.9%
13.4%AU$10.00AU$6.50n/a13
Feb ’25AU$5.69
AU$8.25
+45.1%
19.2%AU$12.00AU$6.50n/a12
Jan ’25AU$7.18
AU$8.98
+25.1%
14.9%AU$12.00AU$7.20n/a12
Dec ’24AU$6.38
AU$9.17
+43.7%
15.1%AU$12.00AU$7.20AU$6.9013
Nov ’24AU$7.09
AU$9.22
+30.1%
15.3%AU$12.00AU$7.20AU$7.8713
Oct ’24AU$6.80
AU$9.05
+33.1%
16.5%AU$12.00AU$6.50AU$7.8713
Sep ’24AU$7.28
AU$9.07
+24.6%
16.2%AU$12.00AU$6.50AU$7.0813
Aug ’24AU$6.92
AU$9.11
+31.6%
18.2%AU$12.00AU$6.60AU$6.2812
Jul ’24AU$6.86
AU$9.06
+32.1%
17.5%AU$12.00AU$6.70AU$6.1713
Jun ’24AU$7.46
AU$9.14
+22.6%
17.0%AU$12.00AU$6.70AU$6.6313
May ’24AU$6.42
AU$8.54
+33.0%
20.7%AU$12.00AU$6.40AU$6.5112
Apr ’24AU$6.37
AU$8.96
+40.6%
20.1%AU$12.00AU$6.60AU$5.7012
Mar ’24AU$8.42
AU$9.59
+13.9%
19.1%AU$12.78AU$6.70AU$6.1212
Feb ’24AU$9.71
AU$10.08
+3.8%
20.6%AU$12.78AU$4.95AU$5.6911
Jan ’24AU$7.88
AU$9.57
+21.5%
22.9%AU$12.78AU$4.95AU$7.1810
Dec ’23AU$8.79
AU$9.54
+8.6%
23.1%AU$12.78AU$4.95AU$6.3810

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/31 11:21
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/31 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lynas Rare Earths Limited is covered by 34 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Michael HarrowellAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Daniel MorganBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited