Fortescue Ltd

CHIA:FMG Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$57.4b

Fortescue Valuation

Is FMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FMG (A$18.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$39.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FMG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FMG?

Key metric: As FMG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FMG. This is calculated by dividing FMG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FMG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.4x
EarningsUS$5.68b
Market CapUS$36.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.2x
BSL BlueScope Steel
10.8x8.1%AU$8.8b
CIA Champion Iron
10.5x5.4%AU$3.0b
DRR Deterra Royalties
13x-6.1%AU$2.0b
SMR Stanmore Resources
6.4x-17.4%AU$2.8b
FMG Fortescue
6.4x-27.0%AU$57.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the peer average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.8x-13.3%US$222.86m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$176.29m
GRR Grange Resources
2.5xn/aUS$164.95m
PTN Patronus Resources
1.9xn/aUS$53.93m
FMG 6.4xIndustry Avg. 12.8xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.4x
Fair PE Ratio11.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FMG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$18.81
AU$19.16
+1.9%
11.6%AU$23.74AU$15.42n/a17
Dec ’25AU$18.96
AU$18.77
-1.0%
12.6%AU$23.25AU$14.79n/a17
Nov ’25AU$19.47
AU$18.61
-4.4%
13.0%AU$23.17AU$14.61n/a16
Oct ’25AU$19.96
AU$18.25
-8.6%
13.2%AU$23.88AU$13.89n/a16
Sep ’25AU$18.32
AU$18.99
+3.6%
15.4%AU$25.28AU$14.30n/a17
Aug ’25AU$18.95
AU$19.50
+2.9%
15.0%AU$26.17AU$14.27n/a17
Jul ’25AU$21.69
AU$21.00
-3.2%
16.8%AU$26.32AU$12.46n/a17
Jun ’25AU$24.76
AU$21.32
-13.9%
16.3%AU$26.49AU$13.28n/a17
May ’25AU$25.38
AU$21.48
-15.4%
16.5%AU$26.67AU$13.37n/a16
Apr ’25AU$25.73
AU$21.97
-14.6%
14.4%AU$26.19AU$14.07n/a16
Mar ’25AU$26.15
AU$22.41
-14.3%
12.2%AU$26.34AU$17.40n/a16
Feb ’25AU$29.51
AU$22.24
-24.6%
11.9%AU$26.05AU$17.33n/a15
Jan ’25AU$28.96
AU$20.23
-30.1%
15.5%AU$26.14AU$15.78n/a15
Dec ’24AU$25.10
AU$19.23
-23.4%
13.6%AU$23.95AU$15.27AU$18.9615
Nov ’24AU$22.81
AU$18.70
-18.0%
13.9%AU$24.13AU$15.64AU$19.4715
Oct ’24AU$20.88
AU$17.70
-15.2%
16.2%AU$24.23AU$13.79AU$19.9615
Sep ’24AU$20.39
AU$17.20
-15.6%
11.5%AU$20.05AU$13.74AU$18.3217
Aug ’24AU$21.94
AU$18.04
-17.8%
12.4%AU$23.05AU$14.69AU$18.9517
Jul ’24AU$22.18
AU$17.72
-20.1%
9.5%AU$19.99AU$14.94AU$21.6917
Jun ’24AU$19.37
AU$17.92
-7.5%
12.4%AU$23.38AU$14.09AU$24.7617
May ’24AU$20.96
AU$17.79
-15.1%
12.2%AU$23.18AU$14.21AU$25.3817
Apr ’24AU$22.40
AU$17.65
-21.2%
13.1%AU$23.70AU$14.11AU$25.7317
Mar ’24AU$22.12
AU$17.72
-19.9%
14.5%AU$23.44AU$13.76AU$26.1518
Feb ’24AU$22.34
AU$17.00
-23.9%
15.4%AU$22.81AU$12.65AU$29.5119
Jan ’24AU$20.52
AU$16.43
-19.9%
15.9%AU$21.82AU$11.69AU$28.9619
Dec ’23AU$19.95
AU$15.43
-22.7%
15.6%AU$21.54AU$11.54AU$25.1019

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/17 05:09
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/17 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Fortescue Ltd is covered by 41 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Michael HarrowellAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Ephrem RaviBarclays