Terrain Minerals' (ASX:TMX) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Lackluster Earnings

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 19, 2021
ASX:TMX
Source: Shutterstock

Terrain Minerals Limited's (ASX:TMX) weak earnings were disregarded by the market. Despite the market responding positively, we think that there are several concerning factors that investors should be aware of.

View our latest analysis for Terrain Minerals

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:TMX Earnings and Revenue History March 19th 2021

A Closer Look At Terrain Minerals' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Terrain Minerals has an accrual ratio of 2.38 for the year to December 2020. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Even though it reported a profit of AU$1.42m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through AU$939k in the last year. We also note that Terrain Minerals' free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of AU$939k. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Terrain Minerals' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Terrain Minerals.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Terrain Minerals' profit was boosted by unusual items worth AU$2.0m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that Terrain Minerals' positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to December 2020. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Terrain Minerals' Profit Performance

Summing up, Terrain Minerals received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that Terrain Minerals'underlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. If you want to do dive deeper into Terrain Minerals, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (3 are concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Terrain Minerals.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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