Regis Resources' (ASX:RRL) earnings have declined over three years, contributing to shareholders 61% loss

By
Simply Wall St
Published
February 16, 2022
ASX:RRL
Source: Shutterstock

The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But the long term shareholders of Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Sadly for them, the share price is down 66% in that time. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 39% in a year. But it's up 5.1% in the last week.

On a more encouraging note the company has added AU$72m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Regis Resources

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years that the share price fell, Regis Resources' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 18% each year. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 30% annual reduction in the share price. So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 10.07.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:RRL Earnings Per Share Growth February 16th 2022

This free interactive report on Regis Resources' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Regis Resources, it has a TSR of -61% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 9.1% in the last year, Regis Resources shareholders lost 35% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Regis Resources you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

Discounted cash flow calculation for every stock

Simply Wall St does a detailed discounted cash flow calculation every 6 hours for every stock on the market, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any company just search here. It’s FREE.

Make Confident Investment Decisions

Simply Wall St's Editorial Team provides unbiased, factual reporting on global stocks using in-depth fundamental analysis.
Find out more about our editorial guidelines and team.