MLG Oz's (ASX:MLG) Performance Is Even Better Than Its Earnings Suggest

The subdued stock price reaction suggests that MLG Oz Limited's (ASX:MLG) strong earnings didn't offer any surprises. Our analysis suggests that investors might be missing some promising details.

See our latest analysis for MLG Oz

A Closer Look At MLG Oz's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

MLG Oz has an accrual ratio of -0.12 for the year to June 2021. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of AU$24m, well over the AU$12.5m it reported in profit. MLG Oz shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On MLG Oz's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, MLG Oz has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Because of this, we think MLG Oz's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. You'd be interested to know, that we found 3 warning signs for MLG Oz and you'll want to know about them.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of MLG Oz's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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