Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) Half-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.7% to close at AU$60.90 following the release of its interim results. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of AU$2.5b being 2.1% less than what the analysts had been modelling. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Mineral Resources

Taking into account the latest results, Mineral Resources' 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be AU$4.95b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 31% to AU$1.40 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$4.79b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.42 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a slight bump in to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of AU$66.85, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to Mineral Resources's valuation in the near term. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mineral Resources at AU$77.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$48.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Mineral Resources shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Mineral Resources' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 0.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Mineral Resources.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$66.85, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mineral Resources going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Mineral Resources (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.