Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Evolution Mining

How Much Debt Does Evolution Mining Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 Evolution Mining had AU$1.84b of debt, an increase on AU$611.2m, over one year. However, it also had AU$572.4m in cash, and so its net debt is AU$1.27b.

How Strong Is Evolution Mining's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Evolution Mining had liabilities of AU$861.9m due within 12 months and liabilities of AU$2.51b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of AU$572.4m and AU$174.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by AU$2.63b.

This deficit isn't so bad because Evolution Mining is worth AU$5.32b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

With net debt sitting at just 1.4 times EBITDA, Evolution Mining is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 9.4 times the interest expense over the last year. But the bad news is that Evolution Mining has seen its EBIT plunge 19% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Evolution Mining's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Evolution Mining recorded free cash flow worth 63% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Evolution Mining's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. For example its interest cover was refreshing. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Evolution Mining is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. In light of our reservations about the company's balance sheet, it seems sensible to check if insiders have been selling shares recently.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.