Develop Global (ASX:DVP) Could Be 15% Undervalued After Interim CFO Appointment

Develop Global (ASX:DVP) shares reacted to news that the company appointed experienced resources executive Felicity Hughes as Interim Chief Financial Officer, following the resignation of CFO Ben MacKinnon, effective July 1, 2026.

See our latest analysis for Develop Global.

The CFO change comes after a strong run in Develop Global's share price, with a 90 day share price return of 51.34% and a 3 year total shareholder return of 80.22%. However, the 7 day share price return of 9.46% shows some cooling in the very near term.

If this kind of executive reshuffle has you thinking about where else capital could work harder, it may be worth scanning a curated list of 30 best rare earth metal stocks

With Develop Global now trading at A$6.22 and sitting about 15% below the A$7.15 analyst price target, plus an indicated intrinsic value gap, investors have to ask whether there is still upside here or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued

On the latest view, Develop Global is priced at A$6.22 against a narrative fair value of A$7.15, with that work built on detailed project and earnings assumptions using an 8.48% discount rate.

The mining services division now has two contracts, including a A$200m tunnelling contract at Waihi North. Management is assessing further tenders while highlighting very tight labour and equipment markets, which can support pricing power and potentially improve services margins and group earnings if capacity is allocated carefully between internal mines and external clients.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this A$7.15 fair value hangs so much on future revenue growth, fatter margins and a lower profit multiple than today? The full narrative opens up how those moving parts interact, and which earnings path needs to play out for Develop Global to line up with that target.

Result: Fair Value of A$7.15 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Develop Global’s narrative could shift if Woodlawn or Sulphur Springs underdeliver on production plans, or if additional mining services tenders do not convert into contracts.

Find out about the key risks to this Develop Global narrative.

Another View: What Multiples Say About Develop Global

While the SWS DCF model suggests Develop Global is trading at a large discount to estimated future cash flows, the current P/E of 28.1x paints a different picture. It sits above the Australian Metals and Mining industry at 11.3x, the peer average at 23.2x, and even the fair ratio of 27.2x. This points to valuation risk if growth or margins do not track expectations.

Put simply, the cash flow work argues there could be a wide margin of safety, while the earnings multiple signals less room for error. The question then is which lens you put more weight on if the story is tested.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If Develop Global's mix of potential upside and flagged concerns leaves you undecided, it may be useful to review the data first-hand and weigh both sides carefully. To see the balance of risks and rewards that investors are currently focused on, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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