The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From BHP Group Limited's (ASX:BHP) Earnings Yet

BHP Group Limited's (ASX:BHP) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.9x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Australia, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 18x and even P/E's above 32x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

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Recent times have been advantageous for BHP Group as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings performance might be less impressive moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

View our latest analysis for BHP Group

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on BHP Group.

How Is BHP Group's Growth Trending?

BHP Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 54% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 29% drop in EPS in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 3.0% per year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 15% per annum, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we are not surprised that BHP Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of BHP Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for BHP Group (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.