Calculating The Fair Value Of Bellevue Gold Limited (ASX:BGL)

Key Insights

• Bellevue Gold's estimated fair value is AU$1.21 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of AU$1.05 suggests Bellevue Gold is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Analyst price target for BGL is AU$1.44, which is 19% above our fair value estimate

How far off is Bellevue Gold Limited (ASX:BGL) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Bellevue Gold

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)	-AU$329.8m	AU$53.3m	AU$241.2m	AU$225.9m	AU$176.2m	AU$149.2m	AU$134.0m	AU$125.2m	AU$120.2m	AU$117.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -15.35%	Est @ -10.17%	Est @ -6.54%	Est @ -4.00%	Est @ -2.22%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5%	-AU$304	AU$45.3	AU$189	AU$163	AU$117	AU$91.5	AU$75.7	AU$65.2	AU$57.7	AU$52.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$553m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$118m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (8.5%– 1.9%) = AU$1.8b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= AU$1.8b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)¹⁰= AU$808m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is AU$1.4b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$1.0, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Bellevue Gold as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.105. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Bellevue Gold

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Bellevue Gold, we've compiled three further aspects you should look at:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Bellevue Gold (2 are potentially serious!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does BGL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.