One Thing To Consider Before Buying Antipa Minerals Limited (ASX:AZY)

If you are looking to invest in Antipa Minerals Limited’s (ASX:AZY), or currently own the stock, then you need to understand its beta in order to understand how it can affect the risk of your portfolio. There are two types of risks that affect the market value of a listed company such as AZY. The first risk to consider is company-specific, which can be diversified away when you invest in other companies in the same industry as AZY, because it is rare that an entire industry collapses at once. The second type is market risk, one that you cannot diversify away, since it arises from macroeconomic factors which directly affects all the stocks in the market.

Different characteristics of a stock expose it to various levels of market risk. A popular measure of market risk for a stock is its beta, and the market as a whole represents a beta value of one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, and those with a beta less than one is generally less volatile.

Check out our latest analysis for Antipa Minerals

An interpretation of AZY’s beta

Antipa Minerals’s beta of 0.61 indicates that the company is less volatile relative to the diversified market portfolio. The stock will exhibit muted movements in both the downside and upside, in response to changing economic conditions, whereas the general market may move by a lot more. Based on this beta value, AZY appears to be a stock that an investor with a high-beta portfolio would look for to reduce risk exposure to the market.

ASX:AZY Income Statement Mar 28th 18
ASX:AZY Income Statement Mar 28th 18

Does AZY’s size and industry impact the expected beta?

A market capitalisation of AU$19.95M puts AZY in the category of small-cap stocks, which tends to possess higher beta than larger companies. Moreover, AZY’s industry, metals and mining, is considered to be cyclical, which means it is more volatile than the market over the economic cycle. As a result, we should expect a high beta for the small-cap AZY but a low beta for the metals and mining industry. It seems as though there is an inconsistency in risks portrayed by AZY’s size and industry relative to its actual beta value. A potential driver of this variance can be a fundamental factor, which we will take a look at next.

Is AZY’s cost structure indicative of a high beta?

An asset-heavy company tends to have a higher beta because the risk associated with running fixed assets during a downturn is highly expensive. I test AZY’s ratio of fixed assets to total assets in order to determine how high the risk is associated with this type of constraint. AZY’s fixed assets to total assets ratio of higher than 30% shows that the company uses up a big chunk of its capital on assets that are hard to scale up or down in short notice. Thus, we can expect AZY to be more volatile in the face of market movements, relative to its peers of similar size but with a lower proportion of fixed assets on their books. This outcome contradicts AZY’s current beta value which indicates a below-average volatility.

What this means for you:

You could benefit from lower risk during times of economic decline by holding onto AZY. Take into account your portfolio sensitivity to the market before you invest in the stock, as well as where we are in the current economic cycle. Depending on the composition of your portfolio, AZY may be a valuable stock to hold onto in order to cushion the impact of a downturn. What I have not mentioned in my article here are important company-specific fundamentals such as Antipa Minerals’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to complete your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Financial Health: Is AZY’s operations financially sustainable? Balance sheets can be hard to analyze, which is why we’ve done it for you. Check out our financial health checks here.
  2. Past Track Record: Has AZY been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of AZY’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.