Arafura Rare Earths Limited

ASX:ARU Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$283.4m

Arafura Rare Earths Valuation

Is ARU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ARU's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ARU's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARU?

Key metric: As ARU is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for ARU. This is calculated by dividing ARU's market cap by their current book value.
What is ARU's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio2x
BookAU$144.11m
Market CapAU$283.40m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does ARU's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for ARU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
OMH OM Holdings
0.4x32.1%AU$279.0m
JMS Jupiter Mines
0.5xn/aAU$274.4m
WC8 Wildcat Resources
1.2x-4.9%AU$290.6m
AMI Aurelia Metals
0.9x32.3%AU$287.6m
ARU Arafura Rare Earths
2x5.8%AU$283.4m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: ARU is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does ARU's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAS Hastings Technology Metals
0.2x12.6%US$35.50m
JRV Jervois Global
0.1xn/aUS$18.53m
ADN Andromeda Metals
0.2x25.5%US$14.95m
CTO Citigold
0.1xn/aUS$7.48m
ARU 2.0xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies98PB00.81.62.43.24+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: ARU is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (1.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARU's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARU PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio2x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ARU's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.12
AU$0.18
+59.4%
27.2%AU$0.25AU$0.13n/a3
Dec ’25AU$0.12
AU$0.18
+52.8%
27.2%AU$0.25AU$0.13n/a3
Nov ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.18
+18.3%
27.2%AU$0.25AU$0.13n/a3
Oct ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.17
+2.0%
35.4%AU$0.25AU$0.10n/a3
Sep ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.17
+5.0%
35.4%AU$0.25AU$0.10n/a3
Aug ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.14
-20.6%
25.9%AU$0.17AU$0.10n/a2
Jul ’25AU$0.18
AU$0.24
+35.2%
46.3%AU$0.40AU$0.14n/a3
Jun ’25AU$0.19
AU$0.24
+28.1%
46.3%AU$0.40AU$0.14n/a3
May ’25AU$0.20
AU$0.24
+24.8%
46.3%AU$0.40AU$0.14n/a3
Apr ’25AU$0.20
AU$0.27
+30.1%
35.5%AU$0.40AU$0.19n/a3
Mar ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.20
+29.0%
5.0%AU$0.21AU$0.19n/a2
Feb ’25AU$0.13
AU$0.20
+60.0%
5.0%AU$0.21AU$0.19n/a2
Jan ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.33
+97.0%
35.4%AU$0.44AU$0.21n/a2
Dec ’24AU$0.20
AU$0.47
+139.3%
35.4%AU$0.65AU$0.25AU$0.123
Nov ’24AU$0.20
AU$0.55
+175.0%
39.3%AU$0.75AU$0.25AU$0.153
Oct ’24AU$0.26
AU$0.60
+130.8%
24.5%AU$0.75AU$0.40AU$0.173
Sep ’24AU$0.24
AU$0.60
+144.9%
24.5%AU$0.75AU$0.40AU$0.173
Aug ’24AU$0.29
AU$0.62
+111.3%
25.4%AU$0.75AU$0.40AU$0.173
Jul ’24AU$0.30
AU$0.69
+126.2%
9.4%AU$0.75AU$0.60AU$0.183
Jun ’24AU$0.35
AU$0.69
+97.1%
9.4%AU$0.75AU$0.60AU$0.193
May ’24AU$0.41
AU$0.69
+68.3%
9.4%AU$0.75AU$0.60AU$0.203
Apr ’24AU$0.49
AU$0.69
+39.4%
9.4%AU$0.75AU$0.60AU$0.203
Mar ’24AU$0.65
AU$0.73
+13.1%
2.0%AU$0.75AU$0.72AU$0.152

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 11:50
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Arafura Rare Earths Limited is covered by 5 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Michael HarrowellAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Regan BurrowsBell Potter
Reg SpencerCanaccord Genuity