Austral Gold Limited (ASX:AGD) Stock Catapults 30% Though Its Price And Business Still Lag The Industry

Austral Gold Limited (ASX:AGD) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 30% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 131% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

Although its price has surged higher, Austral Gold's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Metals and Mining industry in Australia, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 45.2x and even P/S above 314x are quite common. However, the P/S might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Austral Gold

How Has Austral Gold Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Austral Gold over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance isn't good enough to keep up the industry, causing the P/S ratio to suffer. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Austral Gold, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For Austral Gold?

Austral Gold's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling revenue, and importantly, perform much worse than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 23% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 43% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 333% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's understandable that Austral Gold's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Key Takeaway

Austral Gold's recent share price jump still sees fails to bring its P/S alongside the industry median. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

It's no surprise that Austral Gold maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Austral Gold has 4 warning signs (and 3 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.