Alcoa Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of AAI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AAI (A$39.43) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$195.77)

Is AAI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow

Simply Wall St

AU$195.77

Fair Value

79.9% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AAI (A$39.43) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$195.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAI?

Key metric: As AAI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AAI. This is calculated by dividing AAI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AAI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	8.1x
Earnings	US$847.00m
Market Cap	US$6.85b

AAI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3.7x
PEG Ratio	-1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	52.2x
BSL BlueScope Steel	18x	20.1%	AU$9.8b
LYC Lynas Rare Earths	152.4x	60.6%	AU$7.7b
CAA Capral	4.8x	9.7%	AU$154.9m
SFR Sandfire Resources	33.6x	33.1%	AU$4.6b
AAI Alcoa	8.1x	-6.3%	AU$6.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the peer average (52.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated	1.9x	-0.5%	US$263.72m
RHI Red Hill Minerals	1.3x	n/a	US$136.15m
CEL Challenger Gold	1.9x	n/a	US$88.50m
IDA Indiana Resources	1x	n/a	US$32.06m

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.1x
Fair PE Ratio	13.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

AnalystConsensusTarget

Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts

AU$54.61

Fair Value

27.8% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/04/25 02:04
End of Day Share Price	2025/04/24 00:00
Earnings	2025/03/31
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alcoa Corporation is covered by 27 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
David Coleman	Argus Research Company
Ishan Majumdar	Baptista Research
Paretosh Misra	Berenberg