Medibank Private Limited

CHIA:MPL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$10.2b

Medibank Private Valuation

Is MPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MPL (A$3.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$6.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MPL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MPL?

Key metric: As MPL is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MPL. This is calculated by dividing MPL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MPL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.3x
SalesAU$8.03b
Market CapAU$10.19b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MPL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.1x
NHF nib holdings
0.8x4.0%AU$2.7b
GDG Generation Development Group
3.4x-27.6%AU$1.1b
CVW ClearView Wealth
0.5x8.0%AU$221.5m
SDF Steadfast Group
3.6x5.7%AU$6.4b
MPL Medibank Private
1.3x4.7%AU$10.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MPL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MPL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Insurance Industry?

24 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MPL 1.3xIndustry Avg. 1.0xNo. of Companies69PS00.61.21.82.43+
24 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the Global Insurance industry average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MPL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MPL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.3x
Fair PS Ratio1.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MPL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.72
AU$4.08
+9.6%
6.0%AU$4.55AU$3.80n/a11
Nov ’25AU$3.55
AU$4.08
+14.8%
6.0%AU$4.55AU$3.80n/a11
Oct ’25AU$3.61
AU$4.03
+11.6%
7.2%AU$4.55AU$3.45n/a12
Sep ’25AU$3.88
AU$4.03
+3.8%
7.2%AU$4.55AU$3.45n/a12
Aug ’25AU$3.99
AU$3.91
-2.0%
7.1%AU$4.40AU$3.45n/a12
Jul ’25AU$3.71
AU$3.88
+4.6%
6.8%AU$4.30AU$3.45n/a12
Jun ’25AU$3.72
AU$3.92
+5.3%
7.4%AU$4.40AU$3.45n/a13
May ’25AU$3.45
AU$3.87
+12.2%
6.9%AU$4.30AU$3.45n/a12
Apr ’25AU$3.77
AU$3.85
+2.2%
6.3%AU$4.20AU$3.45n/a12
Mar ’25AU$3.65
AU$3.87
+6.1%
7.0%AU$4.30AU$3.41n/a13
Feb ’25AU$3.81
AU$3.91
+2.5%
7.5%AU$4.30AU$3.50n/a12
Jan ’25AU$3.55
AU$3.85
+8.5%
6.4%AU$4.30AU$3.50n/a12
Dec ’24AU$3.52
AU$3.85
+9.4%
6.4%AU$4.30AU$3.50n/a12
Nov ’24AU$3.40
AU$3.85
+13.5%
6.4%AU$4.30AU$3.50AU$3.5512
Oct ’24AU$3.44
AU$3.85
+11.8%
6.0%AU$4.30AU$3.50AU$3.6112
Sep ’24AU$3.64
AU$3.77
+3.7%
9.1%AU$4.30AU$2.86AU$3.8813
Aug ’24AU$3.50
AU$3.64
+4.0%
9.2%AU$4.20AU$2.86AU$3.9913
Jul ’24AU$3.51
AU$3.59
+2.3%
8.9%AU$4.20AU$2.86AU$3.7113
Jun ’24AU$3.64
AU$3.60
-1.0%
8.7%AU$4.20AU$2.86AU$3.7214
May ’24AU$3.52
AU$3.52
+0.04%
9.1%AU$4.20AU$2.86AU$3.4512
Apr ’24AU$3.36
AU$3.54
+5.4%
8.8%AU$4.20AU$2.86AU$3.7713
Mar ’24AU$3.35
AU$3.54
+5.7%
8.8%AU$4.20AU$2.86AU$3.6513
Feb ’24AU$2.94
AU$3.35
+14.0%
12.0%AU$4.50AU$2.95AU$3.8113
Jan ’24AU$2.96
AU$3.34
+12.8%
12.0%AU$4.50AU$3.00AU$3.5513
Dec ’23AU$2.98
AU$3.36
+12.7%
11.9%AU$4.50AU$3.00AU$3.5213
Nov ’23AU$2.86
AU$3.36
+17.6%
11.9%AU$4.50AU$3.00AU$3.4013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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