NobleOak Life Limited Just Missed EPS By 29%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for NobleOak Life Limited (ASX:NOL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 4.7% to AU$1.57. Revenue of AU$377m surpassed estimates by 4.8%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 29% below expectations at AU$0.10 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for NobleOak Life

Following the latest results, NobleOak Life's twin analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$429.3m in 2025. This would be a meaningful 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 59% to AU$0.17. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$383.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.18 in 2025. Although revenue sentiment looks to be improving, the analysts have made a minor downgrade to per-share earnings estimates, perhaps acknowledging the investment required to grow the business.

There's been no major changes to the price target of AU$2.93, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that NobleOak Life's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 43% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.02% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while NobleOak Life's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for NobleOak Life that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.