We're Keeping An Eye On Universal Biosensors' (ASX:UBI) Cash Burn Rate

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But while the successes are well known, investors should not ignore the very many unprofitable companies that simply burn through all their cash and collapse.

So should Universal Biosensors (ASX:UBI) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. Let's start with an examination of the business' cash, relative to its cash burn.

Our analysis indicates that UBI is potentially overvalued!

How Long Is Universal Biosensors' Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at June 2022, Universal Biosensors had cash of AU$32m and such minimal debt that we can ignore it for the purposes of this analysis. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through AU$15m. So it had a cash runway of about 2.1 years from June 2022. Arguably, that's a prudent and sensible length of runway to have. We should note, however, that if we extrapolate recent trends in its cash burn, then its cash runway would get a lot longer. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

How Well Is Universal Biosensors Growing?

Universal Biosensors actually ramped up its cash burn by a whopping 63% in the last year, which shows it is boosting investment in the business. On top of that, the fact that operating revenue was basically flat over the same period compounds the concern. Taken together, we think these growth metrics are a little worrying. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

Can Universal Biosensors Raise More Cash Easily?

Universal Biosensors seems to be in a fairly good position, in terms of cash burn, but we still think it's worthwhile considering how easily it could raise more money if it wanted to. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Universal Biosensors has a market capitalisation of AU$59m and burnt through AU$15m last year, which is 25% of the company's market value. That's fairly notable cash burn, so if the company had to sell shares to cover the cost of another year's operations, shareholders would suffer some costly dilution.

Is Universal Biosensors' Cash Burn A Worry?

On this analysis of Universal Biosensors' cash burn, we think its cash runway was reassuring, while its increasing cash burn has us a bit worried. Even though we don't think it has a problem with its cash burn, the analysis we've done in this article does suggest that shareholders should give some careful thought to the potential cost of raising more money in the future. Readers need to have a sound understanding of business risks before investing in a stock, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Universal Biosensors that potential shareholders should take into account before putting money into a stock.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.