Synlait Milk Limited

CHIA:SM1 Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$495.7m

Synlait Milk Valuation

Is SM1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SM1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
AU$0.11
Fair Value
601.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: SM1 (A$0.79) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$0.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SM1 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SM1?

Key metric: As SM1 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SM1. This is calculated by dividing SM1's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SM1's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesNZ$1.64b
Market CapNZ$548.91m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SM1's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SM1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.9x
SGLLV Ricegrowers
0.4x1.9%AU$671.7m
AAC Australian Agricultural
2.3x7.7%AU$831.8m
CBO Cobram Estate Olives
3.5x12.7%AU$837.9m
MCA Murray Cod Australia
13.6xn/aAU$143.9m
SM1 Synlait Milk
0.3x2.7%AU$548.9m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SM1's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Food Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NOU Noumi
0.08x3.2%US$30.97m
MBH Maggie Beer Holdings
0.2xn/aUS$13.51m
BFC Beston Global Food
0.04xn/aUS$4.12m
TFL TasFoods
0.09xn/aUS$2.79m
SM1 0.3xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies8PS012345+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Australian Food industry average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SM1's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SM1 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SM1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.79
AU$0.40
-49.6%
5.2%AU$0.42AU$0.36n/a4
Feb ’26AU$0.53
AU$0.40
-24.6%
5.2%AU$0.42AU$0.36n/a4
Jan ’26AU$0.39
AU$0.35
-9.2%
12.3%AU$0.41AU$0.29n/a4
Dec ’25AU$0.36
AU$0.39
+7.0%
8.2%AU$0.42AU$0.34n/a4
Nov ’25AU$0.35
AU$0.39
+8.5%
8.2%AU$0.42AU$0.34n/a4
Oct ’25AU$0.36
AU$0.38
+4.4%
8.8%AU$0.42AU$0.34n/a3
Sep ’25AU$0.35
AU$0.41
+14.3%
3.8%AU$0.42AU$0.38n/a3
Aug ’25AU$0.29
AU$0.38
+30.6%
10.3%AU$0.42AU$0.33n/a3
Jul ’25AU$0.21
AU$0.38
+80.3%
10.3%AU$0.42AU$0.33n/a3
Jun ’25AU$0.43
AU$0.64
+47.1%
15.4%AU$0.78AU$0.55n/a3
May ’25AU$0.44
AU$0.64
+45.5%
15.4%AU$0.78AU$0.55n/a3
Apr ’25AU$0.68
AU$1.38
+103.0%
52.1%AU$2.25AU$0.64n/a4
Mar ’25AU$0.70
AU$1.38
+97.2%
52.1%AU$2.25AU$0.64n/a4
Feb ’25AU$0.79
AU$1.58
+100.0%
31.9%AU$2.23AU$1.02AU$0.534
Jan ’25AU$0.87
AU$1.67
+91.8%
26.5%AU$2.26AU$1.18AU$0.394
Dec ’24AU$1.23
AU$1.67
+36.2%
26.5%AU$2.26AU$1.18AU$0.364
Nov ’24AU$1.27
AU$1.67
+31.9%
26.5%AU$2.26AU$1.18AU$0.354
Oct ’24AU$1.37
AU$1.68
+22.9%
25.1%AU$2.24AU$1.17AU$0.364
Sep ’24AU$1.26
AU$2.20
+74.3%
40.1%AU$3.64AU$1.41AU$0.354
Aug ’24AU$1.49
AU$2.22
+49.3%
40.1%AU$3.69AU$1.43AU$0.294
Jul ’24AU$1.52
AU$2.22
+46.3%
40.1%AU$3.69AU$1.43AU$0.214
Jun ’24AU$1.49
AU$2.22
+49.8%
40.1%AU$3.69AU$1.43AU$0.434
May ’24AU$1.45
AU$2.45
+69.1%
33.0%AU$3.66AU$1.42AU$0.444
Apr ’24AU$2.18
AU$2.94
+34.8%
25.0%AU$4.01AU$1.96AU$0.684
Mar ’24AU$3.10
AU$3.66
+18.0%
18.8%AU$4.83AU$3.11AU$0.704
Feb ’24AU$3.29
AU$3.66
+11.1%
18.8%AU$4.83AU$3.11AU$0.794
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
AU$0.38
Fair Value
108.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/22 20:54
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/21 00:00
Earnings2024/07/31
Annual Earnings2024/07/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Synlait Milk Limited is covered by 11 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jonathan SnapeBell Potter
Richard BarwickCLSA
Sean XuCLSA