Is Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) Using Too Much Debt?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX:TWE) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Treasury Wine Estates

What Is Treasury Wine Estates's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Treasury Wine Estates had AU$915.2m of debt in June 2021, down from AU$1.23b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of AU$448.1m, its net debt is less, at about AU$467.1m.

How Healthy Is Treasury Wine Estates' Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Treasury Wine Estates had liabilities of AU$878.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of AU$1.81b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$448.1m as well as receivables valued at AU$585.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling AU$1.66b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Since publicly traded Treasury Wine Estates shares are worth a total of AU$8.82b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While Treasury Wine Estates's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.81 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 6.6 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. On the other hand, Treasury Wine Estates saw its EBIT drop by 2.7% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Treasury Wine Estates's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Treasury Wine Estates produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 52% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

On our analysis Treasury Wine Estates's net debt to EBITDA should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its EBIT growth rate makes us a little nervous about its debt. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Treasury Wine Estates is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Treasury Wine Estates .

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.