Synlait Milk Valuation
Is SM1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of SM1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: SM1 (A$0.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.48)
Significantly Below Fair Value: SM1 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SM1?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is SM1's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | NZ$109.29m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 54.9x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does SM1's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 3.3x | ||
MCA Murray Cod Australia | 9.3x | n/a | AU$88.1m |
BUB Bubs Australia | 1.9x | 12.8% | AU$129.4m |
FFI FFI Holdings | 0.9x | n/a | AU$45.4m |
OJC Original Juice | 1.1x | n/a | AU$51.8m |
SM1 Synlait Milk | 0.08x | 10.3% | AU$109.3m |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (3.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does SM1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Food Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the Australian Food industry average (0.9x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is SM1's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.08x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 0.3x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SM1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | AU$0.46 | AU$0.64 +40.7% | 15.4% | AU$0.78 | AU$0.55 | n/a | 3 |
| Apr ’25 | AU$0.68 | AU$1.38 +104.5% | 52.1% | AU$2.25 | AU$0.64 | n/a | 4 |
| Mar ’25 | AU$0.70 | AU$1.38 +97.2% | 52.1% | AU$2.25 | AU$0.64 | n/a | 4 |
| Feb ’25 | AU$0.80 | AU$1.58 +97.5% | 31.9% | AU$2.23 | AU$1.02 | n/a | 4 |
| Jan ’25 | AU$0.89 | AU$1.67 +88.6% | 26.5% | AU$2.26 | AU$1.18 | n/a | 4 |
| Dec ’24 | AU$1.23 | AU$1.67 +35.7% | 26.5% | AU$2.26 | AU$1.18 | n/a | 4 |
| Nov ’24 | AU$1.27 | AU$1.67 +31.9% | 26.5% | AU$2.26 | AU$1.18 | n/a | 4 |
| Oct ’24 | AU$1.36 | AU$1.68 +23.8% | 25.1% | AU$2.24 | AU$1.17 | n/a | 4 |
| Sep ’24 | AU$1.23 | AU$2.20 +78.6% | 40.1% | AU$3.64 | AU$1.41 | n/a | 4 |
| Aug ’24 | AU$1.49 | AU$2.22 +49.8% | 40.1% | AU$3.69 | AU$1.43 | n/a | 4 |
| Jul ’24 | AU$1.52 | AU$2.22 +46.3% | 40.1% | AU$3.69 | AU$1.43 | n/a | 4 |
| Jun ’24 | AU$1.50 | AU$2.22 +48.8% | 40.1% | AU$3.69 | AU$1.43 | n/a | 4 |
| May ’24 | AU$1.46 | AU$2.45 +67.9% | 33.0% | AU$3.66 | AU$1.42 | n/a | 4 |
| Apr ’24 | AU$2.15 | AU$2.94 +36.6% | 25.0% | AU$4.01 | AU$1.96 | AU$0.68 | 4 |
| Mar ’24 | AU$3.14 | AU$3.66 +16.5% | 18.8% | AU$4.83 | AU$3.11 | AU$0.70 | 4 |
| Feb ’24 | AU$3.27 | AU$3.66 +11.8% | 18.8% | AU$4.83 | AU$3.11 | AU$0.80 | 4 |
| Jan ’24 | AU$3.33 | AU$3.77 +13.1% | 18.8% | AU$4.97 | AU$3.20 | AU$0.89 | 4 |
| Dec ’23 | AU$2.95 | AU$3.62 +22.7% | 19.9% | AU$4.83 | AU$2.96 | AU$1.23 | 4 |
| Nov ’23 | AU$2.85 | AU$3.49 +22.5% | 19.8% | AU$4.65 | AU$2.85 | AU$1.27 | 4 |
| Oct ’23 | AU$3.14 | AU$3.49 +11.2% | 19.8% | AU$4.65 | AU$2.85 | AU$1.36 | 4 |
| Sep ’23 | AU$3.06 | AU$3.50 +14.5% | 22.2% | AU$4.84 | AU$2.94 | AU$1.23 | 4 |
| Aug ’23 | AU$2.83 | AU$3.52 +24.4% | 22.2% | AU$4.86 | AU$2.95 | AU$1.49 | 4 |
| Jul ’23 | AU$2.82 | AU$3.52 +24.9% | 22.2% | AU$4.86 | AU$2.95 | AU$1.52 | 4 |
| Jun ’23 | AU$3.13 | AU$3.52 +12.5% | 22.2% | AU$4.86 | AU$2.95 | AU$1.50 | 4 |
| May ’23 | AU$3.15 | AU$3.62 +14.9% | 21.1% | AU$4.93 | AU$3.04 | AU$1.46 | 4 |
| Apr ’23 | AU$3.15 | AU$3.66 +16.3% | 20.1% | AU$4.93 | AU$3.13 | AU$2.15 | 4 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.