Stock Analysis

Murray Cod Australia (ASX:MCA investor three-year losses grow to 60% as the stock sheds AU$16m this past week

ASX:MCA
Source: Shutterstock

The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Murray Cod Australia Limited (ASX:MCA) shareholders. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 62% drop in the share price over that period.

After losing 11% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Murray Cod Australia

Murray Cod Australia wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

In the last three years Murray Cod Australia saw its revenue shrink by 1.3% per year. That is not a good result. The share price decline of 17% compound, over three years, is understandable given the company doesn't have profits to boast of, and revenue is moving in the wrong direction. Of course, it's the future that will determine whether today's price is a good one. We'd be pretty wary of this one until it makes a profit, because we don't specialize in finding turnaround situations.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:MCA Earnings and Revenue Growth December 6th 2024

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free interactive report on Murray Cod Australia's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Murray Cod Australia's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that Murray Cod Australia's TSR, at -60% is higher than its share price return of -62%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 22% in the last year, Murray Cod Australia shareholders lost 8.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Murray Cod Australia (2 are concerning) that you should be aware of.

Murray Cod Australia is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.