Lynch Group Holdings Limited

ASX:LGL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$219.1m

Lynch Group Holdings Valuation

Is LGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LGL (A$1.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$4.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LGL?

Key metric: As LGL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LGL. This is calculated by dividing LGL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LGL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.6x
SalesAU$397.72m
Market CapAU$219.11m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LGL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.3x
SHV Select Harvests
1.7x8.5%AU$574.1m
RIC Ridley
0.7x4.7%AU$849.8m
DBF Duxton Farms
2.3xn/aAU$56.4m
ELD Elders
0.4x5.0%AU$1.1b
LGL Lynch Group Holdings
0.6x5.8%AU$219.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LGL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Food Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NOU Noumi
0.08x3.2%US$29.46m
TFL TasFoods
0.2xn/aUS$4.65m
BFC Beston Global Food
0.04xn/aUS$4.12m
HLF Halo Food
0.03xn/aUS$1.83m
LGL 0.6xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies11PS00.81.62.43.24+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the Australian Food industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LGL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LGL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.80
AU$1.75
-2.5%
2.9%AU$1.80AU$1.70n/a2
Dec ’25AU$1.75
AU$1.75
0%
2.9%AU$1.80AU$1.70n/a2
Nov ’25AU$1.85
AU$2.37
+27.9%
27.9%AU$3.30AU$1.90n/a3
Oct ’25AU$1.68
AU$2.37
+40.9%
27.9%AU$3.30AU$1.90n/a3
Sep ’25AU$1.56
AU$2.37
+51.7%
27.9%AU$3.30AU$1.90n/a3
Aug ’25AU$1.41
AU$2.40
+70.2%
26.6%AU$3.30AU$1.90n/a3
Jul ’25AU$1.41
AU$2.40
+69.9%
26.6%AU$3.30AU$1.90n/a3
Jun ’25AU$1.40
AU$2.53
+81.0%
21.9%AU$3.30AU$2.00n/a3
May ’25AU$1.43
AU$2.53
+77.2%
21.9%AU$3.30AU$2.00n/a3
Apr ’25AU$1.40
AU$2.53
+81.0%
21.9%AU$3.30AU$2.00n/a3
Mar ’25AU$1.41
AU$2.15
+53.0%
7.0%AU$2.30AU$2.00n/a2
Feb ’25AU$1.58
AU$2.35
+49.2%
6.4%AU$2.50AU$2.20n/a2
Jan ’25AU$1.75
AU$2.35
+34.3%
6.4%AU$2.50AU$2.20n/a2
Dec ’24AU$1.76
AU$2.35
+33.9%
6.4%AU$2.50AU$2.20AU$1.752
Nov ’24AU$2.00
AU$2.55
+27.5%
2.0%AU$2.60AU$2.50AU$1.852
Oct ’24AU$2.00
AU$2.55
+27.5%
2.0%AU$2.60AU$2.50AU$1.682
Sep ’24AU$2.31
AU$2.55
+10.4%
2.0%AU$2.60AU$2.50AU$1.562
Aug ’24AU$2.49
AU$2.80
+12.4%
7.1%AU$3.00AU$2.60AU$1.412
Jul ’24AU$2.61
AU$2.80
+7.3%
7.1%AU$3.00AU$2.60AU$1.412
Jun ’24AU$2.20
AU$2.80
+27.3%
7.1%AU$3.00AU$2.60AU$1.402
May ’24AU$1.69
AU$2.40
+42.0%
4.2%AU$2.50AU$2.30AU$1.432
Apr ’24AU$1.69
AU$2.70
+60.2%
16.0%AU$3.30AU$2.30AU$1.403
Mar ’24AU$1.76
AU$2.70
+53.4%
16.0%AU$3.30AU$2.30AU$1.413
Feb ’24AU$1.60
AU$2.83
+77.1%
11.6%AU$3.30AU$2.60AU$1.583
Jan ’24AU$1.50
AU$2.83
+88.9%
11.6%AU$3.30AU$2.60AU$1.753
Dec ’23AU$1.72
AU$2.83
+64.7%
11.6%AU$3.30AU$2.60AU$1.763

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 00:42
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lynch Group Holdings Limited is covered by 6 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Citi ResearchCitigroup Inc
Alexander PatonCitigroup Inc