Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Australian Vintage Ltd (ASX:AVG)?

Australian Vintage Ltd (ASX:AVG), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the ASX over the last few months. Less-covered, small caps tend to present more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Australian Vintage’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Australian Vintage

Is Australian Vintage still cheap?

Great news for investors – Australian Vintage is still trading at a fairly cheap price according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 14.86x is currently well-below the industry average of 24.4x, meaning that it is trading at a cheaper price relative to its peers. However, given that Australian Vintage’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of Australian Vintage look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to grow by 94% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Australian Vintage. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Since AVG is currently below the industry PE ratio, it may be a great time to increase your holdings in the stock. With a positive outlook on the horizon, it seems like this growth has not yet been fully factored into the share price. However, there are also other factors such as financial health to consider, which could explain the current price multiple.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on AVG for a while, now might be the time to enter the stock. Its buoyant future profit outlook isn’t fully reflected in the current share price yet, which means it’s not too late to buy AVG. But before you make any investment decisions, consider other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to make a well-informed assessment.

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for Australian Vintage and we think they deserve your attention.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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