Is Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 10, 2021
ASX:WPL
Source: Shutterstock

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX:WPL) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Woodside Petroleum

What Is Woodside Petroleum's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Woodside Petroleum had US$5.47b of debt in June 2021, down from US$6.24b, one year before. However, it also had US$3.06b in cash, and so its net debt is US$2.41b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ASX:WPL Debt to Equity History December 10th 2021

A Look At Woodside Petroleum's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Woodside Petroleum had liabilities of US$1.39b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$9.43b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$3.06b and US$353.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$7.41b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Woodside Petroleum has a very large market capitalization of US$15.4b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

While Woodside Petroleum's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.0 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 3.2 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Importantly, Woodside Petroleum's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 34% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Woodside Petroleum can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Woodside Petroleum actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

Woodside Petroleum's EBIT growth rate and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. We think that Woodside Petroleum's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Woodside Petroleum , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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