Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Last week saw the newest yearly earnings release from Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at US$14b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Woodside Energy Group

Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Woodside Energy Group provided consensus estimates of US$13.2b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 5.4% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 68% to US$1.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$13.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.46 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at AU$33.16. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Woodside Energy Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$44.83 and the most bearish at AU$25.95 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Woodside Energy Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 33% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Woodside Energy Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Woodside Energy Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$33.16, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Woodside Energy Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Woodside Energy Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.