Paladin Energy Ltd

ASX:PDN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.3b

Paladin Energy Valuation

Is PDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PDN (A$7.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$68.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PDN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PDN?

Key metric: As PDN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PDN. This is calculated by dividing PDN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PDN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.1x
EarningsUS$53.63m
Market CapUS$1.52b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PDN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.5x
BOE Boss Energy
27.2x32.1%AU$1.2b
NHC New Hope
8.4x-1.3%AU$4.0b
WHC Whitehaven Coal
15.7x17.8%AU$5.6b
YAL Yancoal Australia
6.6x-1.1%AU$8.4b
PDN Paladin Energy
28.1x30.1%AU$2.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the peer average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PDN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FAR FAR
0.8xn/aUS$29.44m
IKW Ikwezi Mining
1.7xn/aUS$12.55m
XST Xstate Resources
0.7xn/aUS$1.89m
No more companies available in this PE range
PDN 28.1xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PDN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PDN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.1x
Fair PE Ratio16.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$7.74
AU$12.94
+67.2%
16.2%AU$16.01AU$9.83n/a8
Nov ’25AU$10.16
AU$14.29
+40.7%
11.5%AU$16.38AU$11.18n/a8
Oct ’25AU$11.77
AU$14.33
+21.7%
14.3%AU$16.64AU$10.60n/a9
Sep ’25AU$9.79
AU$15.47
+58.1%
9.0%AU$16.80AU$12.16n/a8
Aug ’25AU$11.66
AU$16.01
+37.3%
8.7%AU$17.15AU$12.51n/a8
Jul ’25AU$12.52
AU$15.95
+27.4%
8.9%AU$16.97AU$12.37n/a8
Jun ’25AU$15.93
AU$16.09
+1.0%
10.5%AU$18.27AU$12.37n/a9
May ’25AU$14.67
AU$16.22
+10.6%
9.5%AU$18.03AU$12.66n/a9
Apr ’25AU$13.70
AU$14.58
+6.4%
8.0%AU$16.14AU$12.60n/a8
Mar ’25AU$12.00
AU$14.93
+24.4%
6.6%AU$16.23AU$13.18n/a7
Feb ’25AU$12.90
AU$14.51
+12.5%
6.1%AU$16.02AU$13.01n/a7
Jan ’25AU$9.85
AU$11.83
+20.1%
11.5%AU$14.05AU$10.25n/a7
Dec ’24AU$10.35
AU$11.63
+12.3%
11.9%AU$13.49AU$9.16n/a7
Nov ’24AU$10.20
AU$11.97
+17.4%
12.3%AU$13.95AU$9.47AU$10.167
Oct ’24AU$11.00
AU$11.54
+4.9%
19.8%AU$13.95AU$6.58AU$11.777
Sep ’24AU$8.75
AU$10.03
+14.6%
16.6%AU$11.46AU$6.52AU$9.797
Aug ’24AU$7.70
AU$9.93
+29.0%
18.1%AU$11.59AU$6.29AU$11.667
Jul ’24AU$7.30
AU$10.12
+38.7%
18.6%AU$11.62AU$6.39AU$12.526
Jun ’24AU$6.05
AU$10.11
+67.1%
21.1%AU$13.36AU$6.43AU$15.936
May ’24AU$6.50
AU$10.09
+55.2%
20.8%AU$13.27AU$6.39AU$14.676
Apr ’24AU$6.50
AU$9.97
+53.3%
20.5%AU$12.86AU$6.33AU$13.706
Mar ’24AU$7.15
AU$10.36
+44.9%
17.8%AU$13.01AU$7.48AU$12.005
Feb ’24AU$8.15
AU$10.45
+28.2%
17.9%AU$12.96AU$7.31AU$12.905
Jan ’24AU$7.00
AU$10.19
+45.6%
14.9%AU$12.05AU$7.46AU$9.855
Dec ’23AU$8.20
AU$10.87
+32.6%
14.8%AU$12.77AU$7.90AU$10.355
Nov ’23AU$8.60
AU$10.87
+26.4%
14.8%AU$12.77AU$7.90AU$10.205

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Yancoal Australia

AU$8.4b

Engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of metallurgical and thermal coal in Australia, China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Europe, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, India, Chile, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Bangladesh.

YAL

AU$6.30

7D

2.6%

1Y

28.6%

Beach Energy

AU$2.9b

Operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company.

BPT

AU$1.26

7D

1.2%

1Y

-18.2%

Vintage Energy

AU$11.7m

Acquires, explores for, and develops oil and gas properties in Australia.

VEN

AU$0.0075

7D

7.1%

1Y

-73.2%