Ampol (ASX:ALD) - Share price, News & Analysis

ALD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	4/6

ALD Stock Overview

Ampol Limited purchases, refines, distributes, and markets petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 32.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 5.17% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

Ampol Competitors

Viva Energy Group

ASX:VEA

AU$4.5b

Yancoal Australia

ASX:YAL

AU$8.0b

Beach Energy

ASX:BPT

AU$3.7b

New Hope

ASX:NHC

AU$3.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Ampol
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$34.00
52 Week High	AU$35.08
52 Week Low	AU$25.76
Beta	0.94
1 Month Change	1.55%
3 Month Change	16.64%
1 Year Change	16.56%
3 Year Change	28.84%
5 Year Change	0.29%
Change since IPO	1,159.26%

Recent News & Updates

May 19

Is Ampol (ASX:ALD) Using Too Much Debt?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...

Shareholder Returns

	ALD	AU Oil and Gas	AU Market
7D	-0.9%	1.6%	-1.3%
1Y	16.6%	33.1%	-2.0%

Return vs Industry: ALD underperformed the Australian Oil and Gas industry which returned 33.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALD exceeded the Australian Market which returned -1.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALD volatility
ALD Average Weekly Movement	3.6%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	12.2%
Market Average Movement	9.3%
10% most volatile stocks in AU Market	16.3%
10% least volatile stocks in AU Market	4.1%

Stable Share Price: ALD is less volatile than 75% of Australian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALD's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1900	8,300	Matt Halliday	https://www.ampol.com.au

Ampol Limited purchases, refines, distributes, and markets petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. The company operates through Convenience Retail, and Fuels and Infrastructure segments. The Convenience Retail segment sells fuels through Ampol’s network of stores.

Ampol Fundamentals Summary

How do Ampol's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALD fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$8.10b
Earnings (TTM)	AU$560.00m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$21.63b

14.5x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is ALD overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALD income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$21.63b
Cost of Revenue	AU$19.39b
Gross Profit	AU$2.24b
Other Expenses	AU$1.68b
Earnings	AU$560.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 22, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.35
Gross Margin	10.36%
Net Profit Margin	2.59%
Debt/Equity Ratio	38.5%

How did ALD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.7%

Current Dividend Yield

40%

Payout Ratio

New valuation analysis is now available for all ASX stocks. This is in beta.

Future Growth

How is Ampol forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

5.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALD's forecast earnings growth (5.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: ALD's earnings (5.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (6.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALD's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ALD's revenue (12.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (4.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALD's revenue (12.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALD's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.8%).

Past Performance

How has Ampol performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-27.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALD has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ALD became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALD's earnings have declined by 27.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ALD has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ALD has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (299.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALD's Return on Equity (17.9%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Ampol's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALD's short term assets (A$4.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (A$2.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: ALD's short term assets (A$4.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (A$2.6B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALD's net debt to equity ratio (21.6%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: ALD's debt to equity ratio has increased from 24.9% to 38.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ALD's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (49.2%).

Interest Coverage: ALD's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Ampol current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.74%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ALD's dividend (2.74%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (2.6%).

High Dividend: ALD's dividend (2.74%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Australian market (6.23%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ALD's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ALD's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (39.7%), ALD's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (71.4%), ALD's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Matt Halliday

2.17yrs

Tenure

AU$4,925,372

Compensation

Mr. Matthew Halliday, also known as Matt, serves as Managing Director, Chief Executive Officer and Director at Ampol Limited since June 29, 2020. Mr. Halliday serves as Director of Z Energy Limited since M...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Matt's total compensation ($USD3.49M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Australian market ($USD2.42M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Matt's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALD's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALD's board of directors are considered experienced (3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ALD insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/27 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31