Ampol Limited

ASX:ALD Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$8.0b

Ampol Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Ampol is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 16.9% and 2.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 19.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.5% in 3 years.

Key information

16.9%

Earnings growth rate

19.42%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth12.2%
Revenue growth rate2.4%
Future return on equity15.53%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated28 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 13

ALD: Future Returns Will Rely On Dividend Timing And Steady Earnings Expectations

Analysts have nudged their price target for Ampol slightly higher to A$36.46 from A$36.26, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, modest revenue growth, future profit margins and price-to-earnings (P/E) expectations. What's in the News Ampol declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.60 per share for the six months ended December 31, 2025, giving income focused investors clear visibility on the upcoming payout schedule (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 24

ALD: Future Returns Will Rely On Upcoming Dividend And Steady Earnings Expectations

Ampol's analyst price target has shifted from A$34.64 to A$36.26, with analysts pointing to updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly lower future P/E multiple as the key drivers of this change. What's in the News Ampol declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.60 per share for the six months ended December 31, 2025, giving investors clarity on upcoming cash distributions (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 08

ALD: Future Returns Will Be Supported By Upcoming Dividend And Stable Earnings Outlook

Ampol’s analyst price target has shifted from A$33.72 to A$34.64, with analysts citing small changes in the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions as the basis for the revised valuation. What's in the News Ampol declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.60 per share for the six months ended December 31, 2025.
Narrative Update • Mar 24

ALD: Future Returns Will Be Supported By Upcoming Dividend And Stable Payout Outlook

Analysts have nudged their Ampol valuation higher, with the fair value estimate moving from A$33.32 to A$33.72 as they factor in updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. What's in the News Ampol declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.60 per share for the six months ended December 31, 2025, giving investors clarity on the upcoming payout schedule (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 10

ALD: Future Returns Will Be Supported By Upcoming Dividend And Stable Margins

Ampol's analyst price target has edged down slightly from A$33.74 to A$33.32 as analysts update their assumptions on growth, margins and future P/E settings while keeping their overall view broadly intact. What's in the News Ampol declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.60 per share for the six months ended December 31, 2025, giving investors clarity on the latest half year cash return from the company (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 20

ALD: Future Earnings Will Be Supported By Stable Margins And Undervalued Shares

Analysts have kept their A$33.74 price target for Ampol unchanged, with only minor tweaks to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions behind the valuation. Valuation Changes Fair Value: unchanged at A$33.74 per share, indicating no shift in the core valuation output.
Narrative Update • Feb 06

ALD: Future Earnings Will Be Supported By Stable Margins And Undervalued Shares

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Ampol to A$33.74 from A$34.22, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly higher discount rate, along with a modest adjustment to the expected future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate: trimmed from A$34.22 to A$33.74, a small reduction in the assessed upside for the shares.
Narrative Update • Jan 22

ALD: Earnings Outlook Will Strengthen As Margins Support Undervalued Share Price

Analysts have nudged their Ampol fair value estimate slightly lower, from A$34.29 to A$34.22. This reflects updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Jan 07

ALD: Fair Value Confidence Will Support Positive Long Term Earnings Outlook

Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Ampol at A$34.29, making only minor adjustments to the discount rate, long-term revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions to reflect updated modelling rather than a change in their overall view. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Kept unchanged at A$34.29 per share, indicating no shift in the central valuation outcome.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

ALD: Future Earnings Outlook Will Remain Balanced Amid Slight Margin And Growth Assumption Shifts

Analysts have nudged their price target on Ampol slightly higher to approximately A$34.30 from about A$33.90, citing marginally improved profit margin expectations and a modestly lower discount rate, while also tempering long term revenue growth assumptions. Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has risen slightly to around A$34.29 from about A$33.90.
Analysis Article • Dec 03

Investors Aren't Buying Ampol Limited's (ASX:ALD) Revenues

Ampol Limited's ( ASX:ALD ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x might make it look like a strong buy right now...
Narrative Update • Nov 27

ALD: Future Earnings Outlook To Remain Balanced Amid Minor Model Adjustments

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Ampol from $33.50 to $33.90. This change reflects minor model adjustments and refined assumptions regarding discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and projected price-to-earnings ratios.
Narrative Update • Nov 13

ALD: Interim Dividend Set For September Reflects Balanced Payout Approach

Analysts have raised their price target for Ampol from $33.39 to $33.50, reflecting increased optimism about the company's stronger projected revenue growth, even though there is a slight decline in profit margin expectations. What's in the News Ampol's board declared an interim ordinary dividend of 40 cents per share, fully franked, for the first half of 2025 (Key Developments) This dividend represents a payout ratio of 53%, which aligns with Ampol's policy of paying out 50% to 70% of underlying RCOP net profit after tax (Key Developments) The 2025 interim dividend is lower compared to the 60 cents per share paid for the 2024 interim dividend (Key Developments) The record date for the interim dividend is September 1, 2025, with payment scheduled for September 25, 2025; the ex-date is August 29, 2025 (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Consensus Analyst Price Target increased marginally from A$33.39 to A$33.50 Discount Rate decreased from 6.98% to 6.70% Revenue Growth forecast rose significantly from 1.16% to 2.51% Net Profit Margin expectation edged down from 1.95% to 1.86% Future P/E ratio remained stable, changing slightly from 15.09x to 15.12x
Analysis Article • Nov 07

Returns Are Gaining Momentum At Ampol (ASX:ALD)

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Narrative Update • Oct 30

ALD: Recent Acquisitions Will Drive Cost Synergies Despite Integration Risks Ahead

Ampol's analyst price target has been raised from ARS 32.65 to ARS 33.39, with analysts citing improved earnings visibility and cost synergy opportunities following the acquisition of EG Australia as key drivers for the upward revision. Analyst Commentary Recent street research indicates a shift in sentiment among market observers, with the price target for Ampol seeing notable upward revisions.
Analysis Article • Oct 15

Ampol (ASX:ALD) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Analysis Article • Aug 20

Ampol's (ASX:ALD) Dividend Will Be A$0.40

Ampol Limited ( ASX:ALD ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of A$0.40 per share on the 25th of September. This...
Narrative Update • Aug 19

Lytton Refinery Upgrade And EV Expansion Will Meet Future Cleaner Energy Demands

Analysts have raised Ampol’s price target from A$31.05 to A$32.69, reflecting optimism over the accretive EG Australia acquisition, anticipated cost synergies, and the potential for earnings improvement as integration benefits are realized. Analyst Commentary The acquisition of EG Australia provides high earnings visibility.
Analysis Article • Aug 14

Ampol Limited's (ASX:ALD) Low P/S No Reason For Excitement

ASX:ALD 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Ampol's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Ampol...
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New Narrative • Feb 09

Investments In Low-Sulfur Fuels And EV Charging Will Expand Offerings, But Project Risks May Affect Future Margins

Investment in renewable fuels and EV infrastructure aims to drive revenue growth and enhance competitive position in low-carbon transport markets.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:ALD - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202835,0056017461,1845
12/31/202734,7405866831,0416
12/31/202634,8058879091,3176
12/31/202531,36682-28795N/A
9/30/202531,647-282551,081N/A
6/30/202531,929-1385391,367N/A
3/31/202533,403-83401,141N/A
12/31/202434,878123141915N/A
9/30/202436,2124143221,054N/A
6/30/202437,5467055021,193N/A
3/31/202437,6486277321,356N/A
12/31/202337,7495499611,518N/A
9/30/202338,6773409631,463N/A
6/30/202339,6051309641,408N/A
3/31/202339,0484297331,159N/A
12/31/202238,492728502909N/A
9/30/202233,626810N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202228,760892264626N/A
3/31/202224,821706287630N/A
12/31/202120,883521310635N/A
9/30/202118,847484N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202116,812447318542N/A
3/31/202116,111-19179405N/A
12/31/202015,409-48541268N/A
9/30/202017,730-442141387N/A
6/30/202020,051-399242506N/A
3/31/202021,179-8403675N/A
12/31/201922,307383564844N/A
9/30/201922,081358N/A786N/A
6/30/201921,854333N/A728N/A
3/31/201921,793447N/A662N/A
12/31/201821,731560N/A597N/A
9/30/201820,290649N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201818,848737N/A778N/A
3/31/201817,567678N/A757N/A
12/31/201716,286619N/A735N/A
9/30/201716,697588N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201717,107556N/A700N/A
3/31/201717,520583N/A814N/A
12/31/201617,933610N/A928N/A
9/30/201618,285537N/A975N/A
6/30/201618,636465N/A1,021N/A
3/31/201619,281493N/A953N/A
12/31/201519,927522N/A885N/A
9/30/201520,563377N/A765N/A
6/30/201521,199232N/A646N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALD's forecast earnings growth (16.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.6%).

Earnings vs Market: ALD's earnings (16.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALD's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ALD's revenue (2.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (6.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALD's revenue (2.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALD's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/29 05:39
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/29 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Ampol Limited is covered by 17 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Chris SavageBell Potter
David ErringtonBofA Global Research