Amplitude Energy Limited

ASX:AEL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$448.8m

Amplitude Energy Valuation

Is AEL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AEL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AEL (A$0.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AEL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AEL?

Key metric: As AEL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AEL. This is calculated by dividing AEL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AEL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.1x
SalesAU$219.05m
Market CapAU$448.81m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AEL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AEL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.5x
HZN Horizon Oil
1.8x4.8%AU$301.0m
EEG Empire Energy Group
33.4x68.5%AU$188.2m
BPT Beach Energy
1.6x4.3%AU$2.9b
ECH Echelon Resources
1xn/aAU$81.8m
AEL Amplitude Energy
2.1x13.0%AU$448.8m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AEL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AEL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

36 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.4.8x6.7%
AEL Amplitude Energy
 2.1x13.0%US$289.76m
WDS Woodside Energy Group
2.4x1.5%US$29.54b
STO Santos
2.5x8.0%US$14.26b
AEL 2.1xIndustry Avg. 4.8xNo. of Companies36PS020406080100+
36 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.4.8x7.0%
AEL Amplitude Energy
 2.1x75.6%US$289.76m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AEL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (4.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AEL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AEL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.1x
Fair PS Ratio1.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AEL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.17
AU$0.26
+49.8%
11.3%AU$0.31AU$0.23n/a9
Nov ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.26
+58.9%
11.3%AU$0.31AU$0.23n/a9
Oct ’25AU$0.19
AU$0.26
+36.0%
11.8%AU$0.31AU$0.23n/a10
Sep ’25AU$0.20
AU$0.25
+28.2%
17.0%AU$0.31AU$0.16n/a10
Aug ’25AU$0.23
AU$0.24
+6.1%
16.6%AU$0.30AU$0.16n/a10
Jul ’25AU$0.22
AU$0.24
+8.6%
17.2%AU$0.30AU$0.16n/a10
Jun ’25AU$0.23
AU$0.23
-0.9%
16.4%AU$0.30AU$0.16n/a10
May ’25AU$0.20
AU$0.23
+13.0%
15.7%AU$0.30AU$0.16n/a10
Apr ’25AU$0.22
AU$0.20
-10.5%
22.1%AU$0.30AU$0.15n/a10
Mar ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.19
+24.5%
19.3%AU$0.28AU$0.15n/a10
Feb ’25AU$0.13
AU$0.18
+43.1%
19.4%AU$0.25AU$0.15n/a9
Jan ’25AU$0.13
AU$0.18
+41.0%
20.9%AU$0.25AU$0.12n/a9
Dec ’24AU$0.10
AU$0.18
+83.3%
20.9%AU$0.25AU$0.12n/a9
Nov ’24AU$0.093
AU$0.18
+97.1%
20.9%AU$0.25AU$0.12AU$0.179
Oct ’24AU$0.12
AU$0.20
+68.3%
23.6%AU$0.30AU$0.14AU$0.1910
Sep ’24AU$0.12
AU$0.20
+75.7%
23.6%AU$0.30AU$0.14AU$0.2010
Aug ’24AU$0.14
AU$0.21
+51.4%
22.0%AU$0.30AU$0.16AU$0.2310
Jul ’24AU$0.15
AU$0.22
+45.3%
22.0%AU$0.30AU$0.15AU$0.2210
Jun ’24AU$0.14
AU$0.24
+71.4%
19.4%AU$0.33AU$0.19AU$0.239
May ’24AU$0.17
AU$0.24
+45.5%
18.4%AU$0.33AU$0.19AU$0.2010
Apr ’24AU$0.16
AU$0.24
+49.4%
18.8%AU$0.33AU$0.19AU$0.2210
Mar ’24AU$0.15
AU$0.25
+67.3%
18.4%AU$0.33AU$0.19AU$0.1510
Feb ’24AU$0.17
AU$0.27
+52.0%
18.6%AU$0.38AU$0.20AU$0.1310
Jan ’24AU$0.18
AU$0.29
+58.4%
16.2%AU$0.41AU$0.24AU$0.1310
Dec ’23AU$0.20
AU$0.30
+46.3%
17.2%AU$0.41AU$0.24AU$0.1010
Nov ’23AU$0.20
AU$0.30
+47.8%
16.8%AU$0.41AU$0.24AU$0.09310

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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