Karoon Energy Ltd

ASX:KAR Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.2b

Karoon Energy Valuation

Is KAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
AU$7.50
Fair Value
79.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: KAR (A$1.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KAR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KAR?

Key metric: As KAR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KAR. This is calculated by dividing KAR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KAR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio3x
EarningsUS$245.00m
Market CapUS$729.64m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35x
STX Strike Energy
80.2x38.8%AU$688.1m
HZN Horizon Oil
8x4.2%AU$333.5m
MAY Melbana Energy
27.9xn/aAU$91.0m
ECH Echelon Resources
23.9xn/aAU$85.1m
KAR Karoon Energy
3x-9.4%AU$1.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3x) compared to the peer average (35x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FAR FAR
0.8xn/aUS$32.80m
IKW Ikwezi Mining
1.7xn/aUS$12.55m
XST Xstate Resources
0.7xn/aUS$1.89m
No more companies available in this PE range
KAR 3.0xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3x) compared to the Australian Oil and Gas industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3x
Fair PE Ratio7.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KAR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.54
AU$2.19
+42.9%
13.3%AU$2.65AU$1.80n/a13
Jan ’26AU$1.39
AU$2.20
+58.3%
13.0%AU$2.65AU$1.76n/a13
Dec ’25AU$1.33
AU$2.29
+72.5%
9.5%AU$2.65AU$2.00n/a12
Nov ’25AU$1.40
AU$2.30
+64.5%
9.4%AU$2.65AU$2.00n/a12
Oct ’25AU$1.53
AU$2.40
+57.1%
13.6%AU$3.28AU$1.98n/a14
Sep ’25AU$1.73
AU$2.43
+40.4%
12.6%AU$3.28AU$1.98n/a14
Aug ’25AU$1.94
AU$2.47
+27.8%
12.1%AU$3.28AU$1.98n/a14
Jul ’25AU$1.82
AU$2.53
+39.4%
11.9%AU$3.28AU$2.00n/a14
Jun ’25AU$1.81
AU$2.54
+40.9%
12.3%AU$3.28AU$2.00n/a14
May ’25AU$1.88
AU$2.56
+36.0%
11.8%AU$3.28AU$2.00n/a14
Apr ’25AU$2.16
AU$2.65
+22.5%
10.8%AU$3.28AU$2.30n/a14
Mar ’25AU$1.98
AU$2.63
+32.9%
11.1%AU$3.28AU$2.30n/a13
Feb ’25AU$1.95
AU$2.56
+31.3%
8.0%AU$3.00AU$2.20n/a12
Jan ’25AU$2.03
AU$2.71
+33.4%
11.2%AU$3.50AU$2.20AU$1.3912
Dec ’24AU$2.05
AU$2.81
+37.0%
8.8%AU$3.50AU$2.53AU$1.3311
Nov ’24AU$2.53
AU$2.84
+12.3%
8.3%AU$3.30AU$2.55AU$1.4010
Oct ’24AU$2.64
AU$2.87
+8.6%
13.2%AU$3.64AU$2.48AU$1.5311
Sep ’24AU$2.49
AU$2.77
+11.3%
12.3%AU$3.64AU$2.48AU$1.7311
Aug ’24AU$2.24
AU$2.76
+23.4%
13.2%AU$3.64AU$2.40AU$1.9411
Jul ’24AU$1.97
AU$2.79
+41.8%
15.0%AU$3.64AU$2.30AU$1.8211
Jun ’24AU$2.01
AU$2.83
+40.6%
16.5%AU$3.65AU$2.19AU$1.8110
May ’24AU$2.13
AU$2.85
+33.6%
16.5%AU$3.65AU$2.19AU$1.8810
Apr ’24AU$2.14
AU$2.93
+37.0%
17.3%AU$3.80AU$2.27AU$2.169
Mar ’24AU$2.24
AU$2.95
+31.8%
14.8%AU$3.60AU$2.33AU$1.988
Feb ’24AU$2.30
AU$2.92
+27.0%
17.3%AU$3.70AU$2.31AU$1.958
Jan ’24AU$2.19
AU$2.85
+30.3%
18.5%AU$3.75AU$2.25AU$2.038
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
AU$2.19
Fair Value
30.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/30 18:21
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/30 00:00
Earnings2023/12/31
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Karoon Energy Ltd is covered by 23 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Scott AshtonAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
James RedfernBofA Global Research