Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited's (ASX:AFI) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 29.7x Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited (ASX:AFI) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Australian Foundation Investment over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Australian Foundation Investment

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Australian Foundation Investment's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Australian Foundation Investment's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Australian Foundation Investment's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 15%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 25% in total. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 20% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

With this information, we find it concerning that Australian Foundation Investment is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Australian Foundation Investment's P/E?

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Australian Foundation Investment revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Australian Foundation Investment that you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.