Ainsworth Game Technology Limited

CHIA:AGI Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$244.2m

Ainsworth Game Technology Valuation

Is AGI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGI (A$0.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGI?

Key metric: As AGI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AGI. This is calculated by dividing AGI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AGI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio44.7x
EarningsAU$5.47m
Market CapAU$244.18m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AGI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AGI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.3x
JIN Jumbo Interactive
19.7x7.4%AU$852.0m
RCT Reef Casino Trust
12.7xn/aAU$66.0m
DNA Donaco International
0.9xn/aAU$33.3m
TLC Lottery
27.7x4.6%AU$11.4b
AGI Ainsworth Game Technology
44.7x11.4%AU$244.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AGI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.7x) compared to the peer average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AGI 44.7xIndustry Avg. 20.0xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AGI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.7x) compared to the Global Hospitality industry average (19.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio44.7x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AGI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AGI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.77
AU$0.81
+5.4%
11.6%AU$0.90AU$0.71n/a2
Nov ’25AU$0.72
AU$0.92
+27.1%
1.6%AU$0.93AU$0.90n/a2
Oct ’25AU$0.84
AU$0.92
+8.9%
1.6%AU$0.93AU$0.90n/a2
Sep ’25AU$0.86
AU$0.92
+6.4%
1.6%AU$0.93AU$0.90n/a2
Aug ’25AU$0.92
AU$1.10
+19.9%
0.3%AU$1.10AU$1.09n/a2
Jul ’25AU$0.89
AU$1.10
+23.2%
0.3%AU$1.10AU$1.09n/a2
Jun ’25AU$0.90
AU$1.10
+21.5%
0.3%AU$1.10AU$1.09n/a2
May ’25AU$1.21
AU$1.35
+11.6%
7.8%AU$1.45AU$1.24n/a2
Apr ’25AU$1.24
AU$1.35
+8.5%
7.8%AU$1.45AU$1.24n/a2
Mar ’25AU$1.16
AU$1.35
+15.9%
7.8%AU$1.45AU$1.24n/a2
Feb ’25AU$1.36
AU$1.20
-11.4%
12.5%AU$1.35AU$1.05n/a2
Jan ’25AU$1.32
AU$1.20
-8.7%
12.5%AU$1.35AU$1.05n/a2
Dec ’24AU$1.21
AU$1.20
-0.8%
12.5%AU$1.35AU$1.05n/a2
Nov ’24AU$1.01
AU$1.18
+16.9%
14.9%AU$1.35AU$1.00AU$0.722
Oct ’24AU$1.01
AU$1.18
+16.9%
14.9%AU$1.35AU$1.00AU$0.842
Sep ’24AU$1.00
AU$1.18
+17.5%
14.9%AU$1.35AU$1.00AU$0.862
Aug ’24AU$1.10
AU$1.18
+7.8%
5.9%AU$1.25AU$1.11AU$0.922
Jul ’24AU$1.03
AU$1.18
+14.6%
5.9%AU$1.25AU$1.11AU$0.892
Jun ’24AU$1.06
AU$1.21
+13.7%
7.9%AU$1.30AU$1.11AU$0.902
May ’24AU$0.96
AU$1.24
+29.2%
4.8%AU$1.30AU$1.18AU$1.212
Apr ’24AU$1.02
AU$1.24
+21.6%
4.8%AU$1.30AU$1.18AU$1.242
Mar ’24AU$1.04
AU$1.24
+19.5%
4.8%AU$1.30AU$1.18AU$1.162
Feb ’24AU$1.05
AU$1.23
+16.7%
14.3%AU$1.40AU$1.05AU$1.362
Jan ’24AU$1.04
AU$1.23
+17.8%
14.3%AU$1.40AU$1.05AU$1.322
Dec ’23AU$1.26
AU$1.23
-2.8%
14.3%AU$1.40AU$1.05AU$1.212
Nov ’23AU$0.83
AU$1.12
+34.3%
12.1%AU$1.25AU$0.98AU$1.012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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