The Lottery Corporation Limited's (ASX:TLC) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

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With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 31.6x The Lottery Corporation Limited (ASX:TLC) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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Lottery certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Lottery's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 20% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 40% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 7.8% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 15% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Lottery is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Lottery's P/E?

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Lottery's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Lottery you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Lottery, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.